Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Anybody looking at Tampa March 7, 2014

Ted Craven · 03-07-2014, 04:37 PM

OK - just my opinion!

#8 wins anyway.

FWIW, and related to Pook's questions in another thread about when to PASS races (i.e. pass on the favourite): I saw weakness in the odds-on favourite here:

1. was not ranked far and above (on BL) the next tier horse
2. was an Early (arguably a Fighter) who had not shown he could win against fractions to be set by another horse (#6); AND an Early among 4 or 5 other earlies!
3. the Other Than Earlies (7-4-3) don't look so bad - even the Early #1 can stay out of the suicide duel for the lead
4. was only going to pay (did pay) $3.80 if I call it right. Meh ...

If that's not an opportunity - I am very willing to learn more! It's an example of a race I want to be in: 8+ runners, older horses, some 'defects' to a top ranked odds-on favourite = odds on everyone else are higher. Lose I may (and did) - but I want my fair share of the mutuels when these favourites lose.

FWIW.

Ted

03-07-2014, 04:37 PM	#6
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,258	OK - just my opinion! #8 wins anyway. FWIW, and related to Pook's questions in another thread about when to PASS races (i.e. pass on the favourite): I saw weakness in the odds-on favourite here: 1. was not ranked far and above (on BL) the next tier horse 2. was an Early (arguably a Fighter) who had not shown he could win against fractions to be set by another horse (#6); AND an Early among 4 or 5 other earlies! 3. the Other Than Earlies (7-4-3) don't look so bad - even the Early #1 can stay out of the suicide duel for the lead 4. was only going to pay (did pay) $3.80 if I call it right. Meh ... If that's not an opportunity - I am very willing to learn more! It's an example of a race I want to be in: 8+ runners, older horses, some 'defects' to a top ranked odds-on favourite = odds on everyone else are higher. Lose I may (and did) - but I want my fair share of the mutuels when these favourites lose. FWIW. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-07-2014 at 05:00 PM.