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improving the variegate predictor
I have an idea on this and it has nothing to do with adjusting anything.Instead of worrying about a single paceline and whether it needs to be adjusted use the horse's ENTIRE past performances and consider any line in the pp that feels right. FOCUS on the break and first call to find patterns that horses exhibit.
Everyone looks to the far right of a past performance line for answers including adjustments. Maybe if we take time to LEARN better answers and MONEY can be found looking to the far LEFT of a line. NOBODY is looking there man. This also can completely eliminate any worries and work as far as adjustments are concerned. Food for thought.
BEFORE entering anything into software:
1) Select your pacelines for as many horses as you feel are needed.
2) Group all the "pure need to lead at FIRST call" horses together. match them against ONE ANOTHER and find the fastest at 1c and 2c. Take the fastest guy, write his line chice down, remove all others from WIN consideration. He is your "surviving early".
3) Group all the " early pressers" together and once again match them only against ONE ANOTHER. Find the one that PRESSES the 2f the best and has best overall speed. Write his line choice downand once again remove all others in THIS category for the WIN. he is your " surviving e/p"
4) repeat these steps for
a) presser
b) sustained.
at the end you should have MAXIMUM 4 horses left. the FASTEST in each of the individual running styles. After all we DO want to bet on FAST horses right?
NOW fire up the computer and ONLY enter these remaing horses into Energy! ( or Validator, Speculator, Synergism, Kgen, Homebrew etc etc) and see what shakes out. Results might really be something that helps everyone in getting a better "read" on the race ok?
************* CAVEAT ***************
ALL the above mentioned "styles" are based 100% on POSITIONAL/VISUAL and NOT computer generated Esp. If you choose to rely on computer stuff for this
Caveat Emptor
Hope this helps
Rich
Last edited by RichieP; 06-21-2006 at 09:51 AM.
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