Arlington 7/11 Turf:
Arlington Handicap: Kicks off 4 straight stakes races in a row. For those of you that don't live in Chicago, it is raining. See attached comment by DRF Reporter Marcus Hersh, and my response. I'm going to be paying extra attention to horses that have performed well on wet turf.
Race 7: Arlington Handicap:
War Dancer is the 2-1 morning line favorite. does not really like to lose on the turf.
Mister Mardi Gras: double entried: Probably runs here in the shorter field of Arlington Handicap (which is also for more money). We're going to handicap this race assuming he runs int the Arlington Handicap and not the Stars and Stripes stakes.
#1 Admiral Kitten: Poor showing aginst 9f in past two races. These are against G1 and G2 company, however. Highest class rating and APV by far, can't throw out regardless. Last line gives best precept total, but I don't think a 9th place finish deserves the highest precept total race. I'm going to go back to the 4th line. Going back to the 4th line doesn't make much difference.
#2 War Dancer: Fresh off win at Louisville Handicap (12f Race). The horse is 2/1, but I expect the odds to be much worse than that.
#3 Mister Mardi Gras: 7 year old gelding: Showed serious power move against a red hot pace. in last race. One cannot ignore him. Must consider in race, and use last line.
#4 Avanzre: Only horse that has shown it is willing to set the pace. Tom Brohamer said: "when you see a lone early horse, loosen up the bankroll and make a trip to the mutuel window."
I'm not sure I'm ready to back him, but I definiteily consider him a contender as the lone pace.
#5 Finnegans Wake: Has not finished strong in last 4 outings. Has absolutely run against stronger competition, and much faster pace than expected today. I'm honestly not really sure what to expect out of this horse today. It's last race is it's 2nd highest precept, so I will givt it its last race.
#6 Infinite Magic:
Finally, a horse that will actually press the pace. The question is, will it break well enough to press the #4 out of contention. Infinite magic hasn't finished ITM since September 2013 (314 days ago). I don't consider him a contender, despite the red hot jockey.
#4 seems to be the lone speed, but regardless of what line you put into RDSS, it doesn't come move higher than #4. Unless one gets a good price, it is not an option.
#3 Mister Mardi Gras rates top in BLBL and secondary correlaries using the last line. #2 War Dancer is the favoite, but I have a hard time using 12f races as an indicator of today.
I have a hard time knowing what to do here. There is a lone early pace horse (#4 @ 7/2), and I am always incled to bet the lone early pace. From what I see, it can both wire a field, and come off the pace. I wouldn't leave him out of horizontal bets. Another interesting note, the #4 has won every single race that
My win bets will depend on price, but I sure like the #3 right now.
I will likely use some version of the 1,2,3,4 in the P4
R8: I had a really hard time with this race. Figuring out the matchup is pretty difficult. Whichever horse has gone to the front before, hasn't done so in the last 10 past performances.
Whnever this happens, and especially in grades stakes races, I look at the race on the same surface with the best preceptor value, see what RDSS gives me, and look for value.
RDSS inherantly undervalues the performance of 12f races when comparing them to 8.5/9 furlong races. I think this makes sense, because in a 12f race, a horses velocity will inherantly decrease more dramatically in a 12f race than in an 8.5f race. Not every horse in the field has run more than 10f. In order to make the horse comparability fair, we must use comparable distances.
After that I separate the stand outs from the gallary, I check to see whether the horse can run can actually run at the longer distance.
The line that the #1 uses is an absolute monster. He's shown he can go the distance. The 7 has shown he can press the pace and win really good fractions... and win at this distance.
When you move remove the non-contenders and move each contender to a 12/11.5f line, the #3 Suntracer looks the best. Have to use all these in the pick 4 and maybe put them all in an exacta.... depending on price (obviously)
Race 8:
Have to pretty much do the same thing. There is really no indication as to what pace to expect.... I don't think there is a whole lot of pace, so I am going to pick the horses I think have the best chance of being in front.
3&4 are the horses I think have the best shot to be in front, and I think 10 is the best closer.
I will likely bet 10 & 3, but I will use #4 in the pick 4.
I'm being dragged out the door right now by my fiance, so I'm not able to finish this post.
Good Skill all!