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After scanning the past performances, I had the following horses as those that have managed to do something against some of the better paced turf races: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9.
The 9 looks slow, so I'll toss it out. The 8 horse's form is questionable if not dubious and it doesn't have enough to convince me that it can win.
The 3 is interesting, in that it is coming second off of a layoff and is dropping in class, but, when you look at its past performances there is very little to like about this horse. The last 3 races in its past performances it has lost by over 36 lengths, plus, if you take away the 1st via DQ, it has never had the pleasure of crossing the finish line first. It does have a nice morning workout, but I think it is asking too much to think the horse can win.
The more interesting horse of the non-favourites is the 4. Its Monmouth races at the bottom of its past performances are actually decent and it is in form. For it to win it needs the 5 to collapse. Granted it is stepping up in class, but according to the Brisnet PPs its best speed rating came on the grass. The only problem with the 4 is that its closing ability seems lesser than the ML favourite, the 5.
I think the 5 will win because it is the lone turf speed, is 2nd off a class drop, is losing its blinkers, and is much the best horse. However, since there is no value in betting it, I will pass the race.
No bet for today.
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