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Old 05-13-2009, 07:01 PM   #1
lueylump
AlwNW1X
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 14
As Easy as 1-2-3...

When I say as easy as 1, 2, 3, I do not want to give the false illusion that this game is as easy as printing money because it is not! I have been a student for over 30 years and a serious Sartin student for almost 20. And I have lost a lot of money perfecting my craft, am still learning, and will never believe that I have this sport mastered! I have to be at the top of my game every time I evaluate a race card; willing to do the dirty work (in lieu of shortcuts), if I expect any modicum of success. The race I will present in this thread was an easy race to handicap but it took me evaluating not 1, or 2, but 3 pacelines to realize a horse I initially threw out during my paceline selection process, was indeed a live mount!

The race was the 1 1/16 mile Mervyn Leroy Handicap run at Hollywood Park on 5/9/2009. It was a 6 horse field and when I got to the #3 horse (Ball F) it had a number of negatives working against it:

1. It had not raced in four months and lost that race by 14 lengths;
2. It had a suspect workout pattern;
3. It’s last figures were light compared to this field (although its two races prior to that made it competitive); and
4. I concluded that it was damaged goods and could not win against this field

I chose to use the #3’s last race because I did not want to give it an unfair advantage, and the 3/5 favorite was undefeated, had good early speed (winning four of its five races wire-to-wire), and had won its first five races in game fashion! However my whole perspective changed once I looked at the E/L Difference graph (see first chart below).

The only horse with an early energy distribution (and the highest EPR) was #3, my throw out horse and my interest piqued. I very quickly went back to its past performances and selected its two races prior to its last race and reanalyzed the race. At this point I knew I had a live mount because in each of its races it had an energy distribution that was much lower than the other five horses, and its EPR in each of those races was also much higher than the other horses. The EPR is measured at the second call so in this race there will only be 2 ½ furlongs for the other horses to run this horse down. The final selling point was the 16/1 post time odds – a HUGE overlay!

In my opinion the post time favorite was a live mount so I used my selection in an Exacta box with the favorite. I also keyed #s 3 and 4 with the other horses in the field in trifecta boxes, betting the 1-3-4 a little heavier because #1 was clearly the other figure horse in the race. Ball F ran straight to the lead without breaking a sweat, repelled the favorite's challenge on the far turn and stretch, and inched away to be clearly the best! Ball F paid $34.00 to win, $39.60 was my exacta price (for a buck), and $104.00 my trifecta return (also for a buck). Not a bad payoff considering the 3/5 and 5/2 lowest-price horses ran 2nd and 3rd.

In summary, do not be prejudiced (either for or) against any horse during the paceline selection process. Let the race unfold without any preconceived notions and take what the race offers you. We have the tools to see things the public cannot see and finding winners can be as easy as 1-2-3!
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