Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
Where did that come from, Jeebs?
Those are serious questions. They are not judgmental or critical of anyone's methods.
Ask yourself! If you are satisfied with the answers then what are you worried about, if not then maybe you have do some more work.
I wouldn't presume to speak for everyone that visits this site. Should you?
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The serious questions you laid out - at least my view from the bleachers anyway - seemed judgmental at first glance. But since you say that these are indeed serious questions, I will answer them seriously.
1) Sometimes, a turf line is all you have to work with. I know some who would rather auto-toss such a horse rather than deal with an unknown factor. I can't say that I blame them. However, if a horse shows energy balance that is closer to early than late, it may indicate that the horse will take to dirt better. Every situation is unique. Horses like Good Samaritan and Yoshida come to mind when it comes to considering a turf line in a dirt race. It's always a risk. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.
2) Pedigree can have a strong bearing, as well as Class Rating/BRIS Prime Power (in my experience).
3) There is no one way to skin the paceline selection cat. Sartin found that a best of last 3 at a comparable surface/distance/comp. level. outperformed other strategies when tested years back. Obviously he is dead and he can't continue to add to his work, but it works for me. Others use the older guidelines with great success. Others do well at matching. It's all individual and based on one's comfort and profit.
4) I try and stay away from very extreme DTV's - unless I can't. Mahoning in the winter is notorious for some of the highest variants that I've ever seen. It is a nightmare trying to use lines from that track. However, sometimes, you have no choice but to use a line with an extreme DTV. You have to mentally note it as such, and really determine based on common sense if the horse is a true contender or not off of non-Sartin factors.
Since paying more attention to Best of Last 3, I have improved my focus. Now that I pay a lot of mind to Early/Late graph differential and Energy Run Styles, I can recognize race shape patterns that loom off the page, especially when one is a lone Energy style and it's graph line sticks out above the rest.