Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Rmath's 4-factor Method

Ted Craven · 07-12-2020, 05:39 PM

Identifying Contenders

The following is an elaboration of the basis of the 4 Factor method posted by Rmath later in this Thread, here.

0. Proceed to the Rx+ Analysis screen.

1. Identify all horses with a rank 5 or better in EITHER ProfitLine or BRIS Prime Power (PL or BPP). RDSS does not show ranks which are higher than 5th, so you could also say find the PL or BPP horses with a rank. According to Rmath's research, these horses win over 90% of all races. These will be considered the 'primary contenders'. There are strategies to bet horses without either of these ranks (often at longer prices) which will be discussed later.

NOTE: In the current RDSS version 2.1.049.11, for races with Coupled Entries (i.e. 1 and 1A or 2 and 2B etc), the PL and BPP are stated incorrectly (fixed in next version). In these cases, consult TwinSpires directly (if you can) to get the ratings.

In this race, the primary contenders are 5-4-7-6-3 (all happen to have BOTH PL and BPP ratings). The 2-1-8 are not primary contenders because they have neither PL or BPP ratings (i.e. ratings 5th or better).

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Another example: in this race, the primary contenders are 6-4-2-12-5-11. All have at least a PL OR a BPP rating 5th or better. The rest have neither and are not primary contenders.

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2. Of these primary contenders identified in Step 1, horses with all 4 Factors are rated higher than those with 3 Factors, which are rated higher than those with 2 Factors which are rated higher than those with only 1 Factor.

Beginning with horses which have the most factors (e.g. 4 factors) start with double 1s (1-1) then continue with single 1s. Break ties as follows: 1-1 in PL/BPP are rated higher than 1-1 in VDC/CSR, which are rated than 1-1 in CSR/PL, which are rated higher than 1-1 in VDC/BPP or VDC/PL or CSR/BPP. In other words, 1-1s involving adjacent factors are ranked higher than 1-1s in non-adjacent factors (that's why the factors are laid out that way).

In the PRX Race 6 above example, the #2 is clearly top ranked because it has (at least) a 1-1 in PL/BPP, in fact a triple 1 (1-1-1).

In the PRX Race 5 above example, both the #5 and #4 have 2 1s but the #4 has 2 adjacent 1s in VDC/CSR (1-1-3-4) while the #5's 1s are non-adjacent VDC/BPP (1-2-2-1). Thus the #4 rates higher than the #5. Moving on from 1-1s, the #3 horse has a single 1 - PL (5-3-1-2) and ranks behind the #4 and #5. The remaining primary contender with all 4 factors in the #6 (3-4-4-3) so it is the next horse.

So far, for the PRX Race 5 example, among the horses with all 4 factors we have 4-5-3-6 = 4 of the 5 primary contenders.

In the PRX Race 6 example, the other 2 4 Factor horses (after the top-ranked #2) are the #6 and #12. The #6 has a 1 in VDC (1-2-5-5) and so ranks higher than the #12 which has no 1s. Among the horses with all 4 factors, the order is 2-6-12 (moving from most 1s to least 1s).

3. Move on with identifying (among the primary contenders from Point #1 - those with at least a PL or BPP rank 5th or better) 3 factor, 2 factor and 1 factor horses. Each descending number of factors will produce fewer winners though generally at higher odds. Rounding out the PRX Race 5 example, the remaining primary contender is the #7 which has 3 factors (X-5-5-5). It ranks after all the others. Thus the Top 5 4-Factor ranks from this race are 4-5-3-6-7.

In the PRX Race 6 example above, 2 horses have 3 factors: the #5 (3-4-4-X) and #11 (5-X-2-4). In my understanding these are basically a tie for 4th/5th rank. If pressed (or if writing a software algorithm) I might give slightly extra weight to the #11 having BOTH PL and BPP ranks and - between the 2 horses - having the lone #2 rank (PL). Thus this race Top 5 4-Factor ranks are 2-6-12-11/5.

Beyond 3-Factor horses, 2- and 1-factor horses don't often appear in the Top 5, though can be bet in different ways as longshots in certain circumstances which will be discussed later. Primary contender horses with 3 or 4 factors (i.e. among those which either PL or BPP ranked 5th or better) account for slightly more than 80% of winners according to Rmath's stats. 2 and 1 Factor horses account for another 15% (= ~95%)

Rounding out the PRX Race 6 example, the #3 is the final primary contender and has 1 factor BPP (X-X-X-3). Interestingly, it is ranked 3rd on Rx3 due to its CR+ and EL+ ratings (both components of Rx3). Also interesting, the #7 with a 4 CSR (X-4-X-X) while not a primary contender (no PL or BPP rating) ranks 2nd on Rx3 due to an even better CR+ rating. (The #7 finished 2nd at 7.40, 5th ranked closing odds). These examples of longshot candidates will again be dealt with separately as they offer profit potential (though which profit you could spend a lot of in pursuit).

PRX Race 6 finished 6-7-2 (4 factor order: 2-6-12-11/5)

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PRX Race 5 finished 5-3-4 (4-factor order: 4-5-3-6-7)

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($2 Exacta prices)

Post in progress (more examples to follow) ...

07-12-2020, 05:39 PM	#3
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Identifying Contenders Identifying Contenders The following is an elaboration of the basis of the 4 Factor method posted by Rmath later in this Thread, here. 0. Proceed to the Rx+ Analysis screen. 1. Identify all horses with a rank 5 or better in EITHER ProfitLine or BRIS Prime Power (PL or BPP). RDSS does not show ranks which are higher than 5th, so you could also say find the PL or BPP horses with a rank. According to Rmath's research, these horses win over 90% of all races. These will be considered the 'primary contenders'. There are strategies to bet horses without either of these ranks (often at longer prices) which will be discussed later. NOTE: In the current RDSS version 2.1.049.11, for races with Coupled Entries (i.e. 1 and 1A or 2 and 2B etc), the PL and BPP are stated incorrectly (fixed in next version). In these cases, consult TwinSpires directly (if you can) to get the ratings. In this race, the primary contenders are 5-4-7-6-3 (all happen to have BOTH PL and BPP ratings). The 2-1-8 are not primary contenders because they have neither PL or BPP ratings (i.e. ratings 5th or better). Another example: in this race, the primary contenders are 6-4-2-12-5-11. All have at least a PL OR a BPP rating 5th or better. The rest have neither and are not primary contenders. 2. Of these primary contenders identified in Step 1, horses with all 4 Factors are rated higher than those with 3 Factors, which are rated higher than those with 2 Factors which are rated higher than those with only 1 Factor. Beginning with horses which have the most factors (e.g. 4 factors) start with double 1s (1-1) then continue with single 1s. Break ties as follows: 1-1 in PL/BPP are rated higher than 1-1 in VDC/CSR, which are rated than 1-1 in CSR/PL, which are rated higher than 1-1 in VDC/BPP or VDC/PL or CSR/BPP. In other words, 1-1s involving adjacent factors are ranked higher than 1-1s in non-adjacent factors (that's why the factors are laid out that way). In the PRX Race 6 above example, the #2 is clearly top ranked because it has (at least) a 1-1 in PL/BPP, in fact a triple 1 (1-1-1). In the PRX Race 5 above example, both the #5 and #4 have 2 1s but the #4 has 2 adjacent 1s in VDC/CSR (1-1-3-4) while the #5's 1s are non-adjacent VDC/BPP (1-2-2-1). Thus the #4 rates higher than the #5. Moving on from 1-1s, the #3 horse has a single 1 - PL (5-3-1-2) and ranks behind the #4 and #5. The remaining primary contender with all 4 factors in the #6 (3-4-4-3) so it is the next horse. So far, for the PRX Race 5 example, among the horses with all 4 factors we have 4-5-3-6 = 4 of the 5 primary contenders. In the PRX Race 6 example, the other 2 4 Factor horses (after the top-ranked #2) are the #6 and #12. The #6 has a 1 in VDC (1-2-5-5) and so ranks higher than the #12 which has no 1s. Among the horses with all 4 factors, the order is 2-6-12 (moving from most 1s to least 1s). 3. Move on with identifying (among the primary contenders from Point #1 - those with at least a PL or BPP rank 5th or better) 3 factor, 2 factor and 1 factor horses. Each descending number of factors will produce fewer winners though generally at higher odds. Rounding out the PRX Race 5 example, the remaining primary contender is the #7 which has 3 factors (X-5-5-5). It ranks after all the others. Thus the Top 5 4-Factor ranks from this race are 4-5-3-6-7. In the PRX Race 6 example above, 2 horses have 3 factors: the #5 (3-4-4-X) and #11 (5-X-2-4). In my understanding these are basically a tie for 4th/5th rank. If pressed (or if writing a software algorithm) I might give slightly extra weight to the #11 having BOTH PL and BPP ranks and - between the 2 horses - having the lone #2 rank (PL). Thus this race Top 5 4-Factor ranks are 2-6-12-11/5. Beyond 3-Factor horses, 2- and 1-factor horses don't often appear in the Top 5, though can be bet in different ways as longshots in certain circumstances which will be discussed later. Primary contender horses with 3 or 4 factors (i.e. among those which either PL or BPP ranked 5th or better) account for slightly more than 80% of winners according to Rmath's stats. 2 and 1 Factor horses account for another 15% (= ~95%) Rounding out the PRX Race 6 example, the #3 is the final primary contender and has 1 factor BPP (X-X-X-3). Interestingly, it is ranked 3rd on Rx3 due to its CR+ and EL+ ratings (both components of Rx3). Also interesting, the #7 with a 4 CSR (X-4-X-X) while not a primary contender (no PL or BPP rating) ranks 2nd on Rx3 due to an even better CR+ rating. (The #7 finished 2nd at 7.40, 5th ranked closing odds). These examples of longshot candidates will again be dealt with separately as they offer profit potential (though which profit you could spend a lot of in pursuit). PRX Race 6 finished 6-7-2 (4 factor order: 2-6-12-11/5) PRX Race 5 finished 5-3-4 (4-factor order: 4-5-3-6-7) ($2 Exacta prices) Post in progress (more examples to follow) ... __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-12-2020 at 02:39 PM.