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Generally speaking and my in experience layoff horses do pay more. Now I have seen layoff horses that have been absence for a year or more and the public makes it the favorite and it'll win. I would never bet a horse like that as there is no risk reward there which is one of my criteria to bet long layoff horses.
Averages distort the normal occurrence of anything being measured to include the average depth of a river. If you can't swim one better not cross as an average depth of 4 feet may become 10 feet along the way. Average prices is something I just don't factor into any of my handicapping.
Some of those Monkey bombs I hit are horses specifically off over 90 days. The public tends to buy into old racing axioms of yesteryear. Class step ups are another the public overlooks.
I would say that at least 20% of races the public just cannot deal with and these races pay big. Many of these horses are very gettable. This game is about making profit. The majority horses won't be qualifier's, no different than many races aren't playable. Just like any race money management is a key ingredient for any recipe, particularity of horses or races that don't fit the norm.
Mitch44
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