[Charlie D]

Here is a Lou using the information from the PP to form a "picture" and pick a horse.

Interesting race. The heavy favorite, Conveyance, is undefeated but can he get the extra 1/8? A couple of horses who have never run on dirt and a couple of horses who have wins over the track.

From the limited results data I looked at, the best spot for a route winner seems to be positionally no worse than 4th, a couple of lengths off the lead all the way around. There was a winner who was 9th early on, so a deep closing win is possible.

If you think the 2 m/l favs might get hooked up where they go 47/47.1 at the 1st call, I think you can get a closer to win at 1 1/8. I may dig below the surface later if I have time.


I think there are 3 horses, possibly 4, fast enough to win this race. Unless Classical is a dirt freak and loves the dirt 1 1/8, I don't think he's fast enough to win.

I do agree with the other 3. Based on the total energies, no adjustment is needed in EXDC/Thoromation.

The EXDC screen has Conveyance winning by half a length over Nacho. The SP screen has Tempted winning by about 2 lengths over Nacho. The Thoromation screen has Nacho nosing out Conveyance, who is the Designated Place Horse.

This tells me Conveyance may not be a lock, but in my experience, undefeated horses are tough to bet against, no matter the readings.

A final twist would be Endorsement. IF he can improve off his maiden win, which his last 2 workouts suggest he might, if the pace goes too fast or the track plays to the late side, she could take it all. If she tries to go early here, she's done. I'm hoping Classical stretching out pushes Conveyance early.

Not my kind of betting race as I prefer older horses and less unknowns (track, distance, surface, etc.), but I might put a small bet on Endorsement if I can get a minimum 8-1 . I don't think I'll get it on the other contenders

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6694