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Jeebs:
A few observations:
1. Be careful when playing such low level tracks as FL and TDN. They have a horse population that is made up of a lot of "cripples" -- that is, horses that have never run a "par" for the race they are running today. Many do not have any sort of "form" cycle since most of the time they are very "ouchy". Most can only run a good race if they feel "good" today, legally or illegally. Also, the low purses at such tracks encourage cheating at times so the trainers and jockeys can pay the bills.
2. The most important decision you can make when handicapping a race is whether the favorite is legit, vulnerable, or a false favorite. Currently, favorites win around 40% of races, and their prices are depressed by the large bettors looking for rebates. In my discussions with Ted, the "hide" concept is out of date. You need to either follow LT1's advice when dealing with a legit favorite, or pass the race.
3. Spend more time constructing your wagers as a function of the viability of the favorite (and also maybe the second favorite). If your time is limited, let the machine pick your pacelines, and use the Rx screen to include decision variables that are not paceline sensitive to help you sort our contenders and structure your bets.
4. Off-tracks and races taken off the turf add additional variables to an already complex decision process. Try a 20 race cycle eliminating these races and the advice in #1-3 above before being too hard on youself.
Hope this helps.
Richard
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