Quote:
Originally Posted by reckless
First off, I am in agreement that to get higher priced mutuels it is imperitive to think out of the box. I couldn't disagree with this more.
And that might mean picking pacelines that do not seem conventional, if not downright silly; this also means taking a line from a lesser level racetrack than the one run at today, and/or using a race at a distance that isn't today's distance, or weird as it sounds to some, to use a paceline 7-8-9 lines back. I disagree with this as well.
I am all for doing things on the contrarian side, while also knowing that I might not win races nearly as often as those best of last 3 players, I might cash on a 20-1 shot or better horse more often than not.
Again, I repeat: I have no qualms taking 30-1 mutuels, and am jealous of the guys that sniff these beauties out.
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And now I'll explain why I disagree. I'll put a link here that will take you to the H.A.N.A. race two weeks a go at MNR.
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...?t=5914&page=2
If you start with my post you can follow it all the way through. Bill V. was kind enough to run my lines through KGEN.
ALL of my lines were the last line, except one and that one was the 3rd back, which was 52 days old. (see explanation)
ALL of my lines used similar distance and surface.
ALL lines came from the same track as today's, except for one.
EVERY LINE shows either a 1st or 2nd place finish except for two early horses. They showed a positional 1st or 2nd at each of the first two calls. Clearly pace players.
Horses with no recent race at a similar distance and surface were discarded.
Horses with absolutely no recent form were discarded.
This hardly seems "contrarian" and yet, the $32.80 winner comes to the top.
Bill V. ran the race through KGEN using the horses and lines he would use, which were slightly different from mine and the still got the $32.80 winner, albeit the second choice rather than the top choice.
My point is, this is not an isolated incident. Longer prices don't come along every race. However, they do come along from time to time and they are possible to get without any form of, shall I say, "trickery".