Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - 8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted)

Bill Lyster · 04-28-2015, 07:56 PM

this is part of a 2.9.2007 thread started by Richie:

2nd Key - Positioning/Beaten Lengths

POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place. - Webster’s

“The 2 biggest reasons why folks can’t learn the Match-Up are
1) Making RULES for everything
2) Getting hung up on a horse’s BEATEN LENGTHS.
I know this to be true because I have been teaching the Match-Up for 20+ years.” - Jim Bradshaw
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Now it is time to begin to see things in a horse’s past performances the way the Hat does.

While we cannot be the Hat and see ALL he “sees” in a race we can use these techniques to become STRONGER matchers. Please watch and remember there are NO rules.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BEATEN LENGTHS:

I want to lay out the few areas where beaten lengths ARE important to the Hat and CAN and SHOULD be used to evaluate both a horse and a potential SPOT PLAY situation.

My original post said that the 6 things listed all come together and work together to become ONE application. Well here it is.

1) When evaluating an EARLY horse (one which we project is going to go wire to wire and can NOT pass horses if he doesn’t get the lead), LOOK at the beaten lengths at the FIRST CALL of his WINNING wire jobs and see if he can get that same lead today based on the early Match-Up. Use the FIRST CALL and compare him with the other earlies (also HERE bring in the position 2-hd and 2-nk guys because they WANT the lead too). If the horse can NOT get the lead he had in his winning line throw the horse out immediately.

2) When a horse loses BOTH position and beaten lengths between the 1st and 2nd calls this is a strong indication THAT pace is one he can NOT handle. If he GAINS position or beaten lengths from 1c to 2c use this as a positive indicator that he can handle the pace.

3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line(s).

You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).

This fastest pace from the last race also opens the door to do some VOODOO by taking that pace of race and then using other lines’ POSITIONING to create a virtual line that NOBODY at the track can “see.” This is the way the Hat introduced me to his Voodoo for the first time a few months back and it blew my mind. We will do a full race on this when we get to that part.
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POSITIONING:

“We want to bet the horse that is closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - Jim Bradshaw

To be HONEST this is very simple and it is the way the Hat decides his horse to bet in EVERY race. It might sound complicated and you think “well what if this appears or what about this factor.”

Relax. Open your mind to new things. WATCH.

They say a picture is worth a thousand words right?

We want to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The #2 is the winner $9.40:

We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The #2 is the winner $9.00:

We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is #5 - $23.60:

We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

The winner is the #2 - $9.60:

We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
The winner is the #6 - $5.20:

We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
The winner is the #5 - $12.40:

We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.
Winner is the #6 - $6.20:

02-12-2007, 10:09 AM
2nd Key - Positioning

I spent a LOT of writing on the beaten lengths because I wanted to make sure I covered the only real areas where they come into play in Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up.

The POSITIONING part is what is messing a lot of folks up and to be HONEST it did to ME also at the start.

What Jim did with me was basically what I have just done. Produce a SERIES of races rapid fire where the picture, when LOOKED AT CLOSELY, tells the whole story.

POSITIONING is actually very SIMPLE. Just

1) RELAX
2) LOOK at what the pictures show
3) RELAX
4) LOOK at what the pictures show

THERE it is.

Jim Bradshaw’s POSITIONING.

Richie
POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place.

02-12-2007, 12:25 PM
Delta 02-07, 7th

Richie:

With respect to the Delta Downs race 7 on 2-07, are you saying that the race is over at the first call because the presser Rufus, 2nd, 1.5L off a 48, is so far ahead of Stratford on Avon, 2nd 1L off a 49.8, EVEN THOUGH the final time adjusts to TWO seconds faster (141.6 vs 143.6 for Rufus)? That is a big WOW. I worked this race last week and I was content in a two horse betting situation to get it down to both of these pressers, but my first impression was that the 2 sec better time made Stratford on Avon a better play.

So what I gather from today’s post is that the Delta 7th race was really OVER at the FIRST call. Rufus, a presser was 1.5L off a 48 1st call and Stratford, another presser was 1L off a 49.8 1st call in an 8.5f race where the projected mile time was 141.40, compared to Rufus’ final time of 143.20. That is a really big WOW that puts an entirely new light on long held “facts.”

02-12-2007, 05:45 PM
You are getting it amigo. I believe the word final time has NOT been used at ALL in anything we have said or done yet.

Now take it a step further and “back up” your positional/pace of race assessment to INCLUDE the FIRST FRACTION (something which fwiw NOBODY does in ROUTES). NOW how do things look to YOU?

“We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - The Hat

Can you explain what you mean by “factoring in pace of race.”

Do you mean to look at all the horses’ last race and pick the fastest pace (if possible close to today’s distance), and then pick a horse that will run close to that pace? And don’t look at the lengths that the horse is behind the leader?

I am confused. Do we look at the first 2 calls to find this horse that is close to the pace?

02-13-2007, 08:23 AM
This part of what I wrote:

“3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line (s).

“You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

It has NOTHING to do with the 7 screenshots shown.

The “fastest pace from last race” is something Jim taught me to do in EVERY race I open up to work. This is kind of a primer to start seeing things about the race that might reveal a horse that is extremely dangerous from what he shows in his LAST RACE.

1) Battling for the lead from 1c-2c
2) Making a QUICK positional move from 1c-2c, etc., etc.

Note that the last thing written about this is the “possibility to make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type of horse WHEN it fits today’s winning race shape early or other than early”

We do this FIRST when looking at a race. Then if the horse shows NOTHING against the pace we MOVE ON with the working of the race, matching, etc., etc.

If he DOES show positive signs from the race we then have to see if he FITS the race shape that’s gonna win today
a) Early - projecting a wire to wire win
b) Other than early - ALL other races

For example:
Our horse battled gamely from 1c-2c against the fastest pace from last race before collapsing. OK, so we open his pp’s up and grab his fastest line (Power line) to evaluate against the others today.

BUT in today’s race there are 2 or 3 other PURE EARLY runners and our guy is the SAME. If he can NOT pass horses he is identified as EARLY style and with the other earlies in the race (assuming their 1st fractions are at least as fast as our guy), TODAY’S winner is going to be Other than early. Our horse does NOT fit this shape.

That’s why I described this “look” at “the fastest pace from last race” as a good thing to create a SPOT PLAY from. It’s only going to help us in SOME races BUT we have to do the mental work and look at EVERY race to find the ones where it WILL tell us something.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

All this has NOTHING to do with the screen shots shown. The screenshots are simply the horse’s POWER LINES or lines that make then FAST. That’s what we match from and bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.

04-28-2015, 07:56 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	this is part of a 2.9.2007 thread started by Richie: 2nd Key - Positioning/Beaten Lengths POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place. - Webster’s “The 2 biggest reasons why folks can’t learn the Match-Up are 1) Making RULES for everything 2) Getting hung up on a horse’s BEATEN LENGTHS. I know this to be true because I have been teaching the Match-Up for 20+ years.” - Jim Bradshaw ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Now it is time to begin to see things in a horse’s past performances the way the Hat does. While we cannot be the Hat and see ALL he “sees” in a race we can use these techniques to become STRONGER matchers. Please watch and remember there are NO rules. --------------------------------------------------------------------- BEATEN LENGTHS: I want to lay out the few areas where beaten lengths ARE important to the Hat and CAN and SHOULD be used to evaluate both a horse and a potential SPOT PLAY situation. My original post said that the 6 things listed all come together and work together to become ONE application. Well here it is. 1) When evaluating an EARLY horse (one which we project is going to go wire to wire and can NOT pass horses if he doesn’t get the lead), LOOK at the beaten lengths at the FIRST CALL of his WINNING wire jobs and see if he can get that same lead today based on the early Match-Up. Use the FIRST CALL and compare him with the other earlies (also HERE bring in the position 2-hd and 2-nk guys because they WANT the lead too). If the horse can NOT get the lead he had in his winning line throw the horse out immediately. 2) When a horse loses BOTH position and beaten lengths between the 1st and 2nd calls this is a strong indication THAT pace is one he can NOT handle. If he GAINS position or beaten lengths from 1c to 2c use this as a positive indicator that he can handle the pace. 3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line(s). You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early). This fastest pace from the last race also opens the door to do some VOODOO by taking that pace of race and then using other lines’ POSITIONING to create a virtual line that NOBODY at the track can “see.” This is the way the Hat introduced me to his Voodoo for the first time a few months back and it blew my mind. We will do a full race on this when we get to that part. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ POSITIONING: “We want to bet the horse that is closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - Jim Bradshaw To be HONEST this is very simple and it is the way the Hat decides his horse to bet in EVERY race. It might sound complicated and you think “well what if this appears or what about this factor.” Relax. Open your mind to new things. WATCH. They say a picture is worth a thousand words right? We want to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. The #2 is the winner $9.40: We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. The #2 is the winner $9.00: We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. The winner is #5 - $23.60: We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. The winner is the #2 - $9.60: We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. The winner is the #6 - $5.20: We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. The winner is the #5 - $12.40: We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race. Winner is the #6 - $6.20: 02-12-2007, 10:09 AM 2nd Key - Positioning I spent a LOT of writing on the beaten lengths because I wanted to make sure I covered the only real areas where they come into play in Jim Bradshaw’s Match-Up. The POSITIONING part is what is messing a lot of folks up and to be HONEST it did to ME also at the start. What Jim did with me was basically what I have just done. Produce a SERIES of races rapid fire where the picture, when LOOKED AT CLOSELY, tells the whole story. POSITIONING is actually very SIMPLE. Just 1) RELAX 2) LOOK at what the pictures show 3) RELAX 4) LOOK at what the pictures show THERE it is. Jim Bradshaw’s POSITIONING. Richie POSITION - A place or location. The right or appropriate place. 02-12-2007, 12:25 PM Delta 02-07, 7th Richie: With respect to the Delta Downs race 7 on 2-07, are you saying that the race is over at the first call because the presser Rufus, 2nd, 1.5L off a 48, is so far ahead of Stratford on Avon, 2nd 1L off a 49.8, EVEN THOUGH the final time adjusts to TWO seconds faster (141.6 vs 143.6 for Rufus)? That is a big WOW. I worked this race last week and I was content in a two horse betting situation to get it down to both of these pressers, but my first impression was that the 2 sec better time made Stratford on Avon a better play. So what I gather from today’s post is that the Delta 7th race was really OVER at the FIRST call. Rufus, a presser was 1.5L off a 48 1st call and Stratford, another presser was 1L off a 49.8 1st call in an 8.5f race where the projected mile time was 141.40, compared to Rufus’ final time of 143.20. That is a really big WOW that puts an entirely new light on long held “facts.” 02-12-2007, 05:45 PM You are getting it amigo. I believe the word final time has NOT been used at ALL in anything we have said or done yet. Now take it a step further and “back up” your positional/pace of race assessment to INCLUDE the FIRST FRACTION (something which fwiw NOBODY does in ROUTES). NOW how do things look to YOU? “We are going to bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race” - The Hat Can you explain what you mean by “factoring in pace of race.” Do you mean to look at all the horses’ last race and pick the fastest pace (if possible close to today’s distance), and then pick a horse that will run close to that pace? And don’t look at the lengths that the horse is behind the leader? I am confused. Do we look at the first 2 calls to find this horse that is close to the pace? 02-13-2007, 08:23 AM This part of what I wrote: “3) When you FIRST open a race scroll the horses and find the fastest PACE OF RACE from the LAST RACE. Look at the horse(s) and check the position and beaten lengths at 1c AND 2c. If the horse maintains position and/or beaten lengths (NOT talking about pos 8-8 for ex, some looking at races like this will show YOU what is ok) this is a TRIGGER to open the horse’s WHOLE pp’s up and evaluate him off BEST line (s). “You can make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type horse WHEN he FITS the race shape you are projecting to win today (early or other than early).” -------------------------------------------------------------------------- It has NOTHING to do with the 7 screenshots shown. The “fastest pace from last race” is something Jim taught me to do in EVERY race I open up to work. This is kind of a primer to start seeing things about the race that might reveal a horse that is extremely dangerous from what he shows in his LAST RACE. 1) Battling for the lead from 1c-2c 2) Making a QUICK positional move from 1c-2c, etc., etc. Note that the last thing written about this is the “possibility to make a personal SPOT PLAY from this type of horse WHEN it fits today’s winning race shape early or other than early” We do this FIRST when looking at a race. Then if the horse shows NOTHING against the pace we MOVE ON with the working of the race, matching, etc., etc. If he DOES show positive signs from the race we then have to see if he FITS the race shape that’s gonna win today a) Early - projecting a wire to wire win b) Other than early - ALL other races For example: Our horse battled gamely from 1c-2c against the fastest pace from last race before collapsing. OK, so we open his pp’s up and grab his fastest line (Power line) to evaluate against the others today. BUT in today’s race there are 2 or 3 other PURE EARLY runners and our guy is the SAME. If he can NOT pass horses he is identified as EARLY style and with the other earlies in the race (assuming their 1st fractions are at least as fast as our guy), TODAY’S winner is going to be Other than early. Our horse does NOT fit this shape. That’s why I described this “look” at “the fastest pace from last race” as a good thing to create a SPOT PLAY from. It’s only going to help us in SOME races BUT we have to do the mental work and look at EVERY race to find the ones where it WILL tell us something. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- All this has NOTHING to do with the screen shots shown. The screenshots are simply the horse’s POWER LINES or lines that make then FAST. That’s what we match from and bet the horse closest to the lead positionally factoring in pace of race.