In retrospect (i.e. where everything is clearer
), I should have examined the last race Tandem between more than half the field - the Plate Trial - particularly in light of Midnight Aria being a
LONE EARLY - truly: no one else wants the lead (check it out).
In the Plate Trial (last Tandem), Midnight Aria dueled through 8 of 9 furlongs with
one another horse,
who is not running today and as a result of which duel, lost by (only) 1 3/4 lengths. (BTW, same scenario with its 2nd and 3rd races back; basically, he's
begging for a scenario where he will not get a pressured trip). Is it reasonable to presume (if the horse is still fit) that he will run that fast again today with no one to pressure him - or will he ease up a bit while still controlling the pace? And have just a smidgin more left in the tank than in his previous 3 races?
I cannot remember how many long prices I have cashed on by expecting a Tandem reversal today given the absence of a previously impactful horse (a lot).
As I said - a retrospective - BUT the value is in at least ASKING the above questions - and knowing that you can find that kind of info somewhere in RDSS! At 17-1, you get a lot of slack for trying to compose wagers which include that horse somehow, especially since the 2nd and 3rd place horses were already covered by 'less astute' analysis.
Merely a 'note to self' (I could have used a few copies of that $170 exacta today).
DaveEdwards - perhaps the wet had an influence - apparently not on the front runner though ... It was fantastic to see the post race replays and the camera shots from the truck driving inside the poly track - right at the edge of the action (driving on the inside harness track). This is the kind of exciting visual coverage racing needs more of! And Jesse Campbell and his family do seem like very likeable and competent people.
Ted