[Ted Craven]

Bill,

The following may sound slightly overwhelming, but I hope it clarifies the relationship/distinction between Equibase/TrackMaster Speed Ratings (SR) and Daily Track Variants (DTV) and DRF ratings and variants (as reported here by Post Time Daily). They each calculate it differently:

The DRF Speed Rating, as you point out, is the deviation in 5th seconds of the horse’s finish time from the 3 year best time (or maybe that’s average 3 year best time, not sure). The horse’s finish time is the winner’s finish time less 1 point (1 5th second) per beaten length or fraction. Per Post Time Daily, the Winner of 13Aug06 race #7 finished in 1:17.1 (1:17 and 1 fifth) 7 fifths ahead of our horse for a SR of 87 which is 2 seconds and 3/5s slower than the 3 year best, so that 3 year best time must be 1:17.1 – 2.3 fifths = 1:14.3 (or 1:14.6 in tenths)

TrackMaster derives a Speed Rating as follows. Employing their Inter Track comparative Speed Chart, a ‘Par’ time is assigned to each track/distance/surface. You can see the Par for each race in the Past Performance header in any Speculator version. The Par time for DMR 6.5 Dirt (the 13Aug06 race #7 in question) is 1:17.44 (so 2.84 seconds slower than the DRF 3yb par time). I got this from the card for DMR 08/13/06 (see screenshot below). Exactly how they calculate all the par times (and thus all the ITVs between all the different track/distance/surfaces) is some kind of a ‘state secret’, but I know they do shipper studies, averages, sample testing by season, etc.

I guess a handicapper just has to decide which set of baselines, or pars, are more useful based on how they help compare horses running today – difficult to do except in the aggregate and requiring more record keeping and study than almost all of us prefer to do.

I believe Doc is suggesting 80 as a Median value guideline to use (meaning half are over 80 and half are under 80). Doc’s article went on to say to accept a horse within 2 SR points of the Median SR value, so confronted with SRs on a different scale, consider using the same technique and determine what the mid-point rating is (Median) and accept horses within 2 (or 3, whatever) of that mid-point.

A reminder: the TrackMaster/Equibase Speed Ratings consist of 3 numbers added together: 1) the Raw Speed Rating, 2) the Daily Track Variant, 3) the Inter Track Variant (ITV). TM breaks out the DTV and this is shown in the TV column in Spec, Val and RDSS. They do not provide the ITV but they provided Doc and Guy (and me) with the formula to extract it, for a given track/distance/surface, which formula was accurate in the late 1990’s (for Validator) but by now is somewhat less so. (RDSS will gain access to the actual ITV value).

For your information, Validator and Speculator show the Raw Speed Rating with the DTV extracted out. In RDSS, I chose to show the Raw SR including the DTV (and implicitly, the ITV) so all of a horse’s lines could be compared with each other for movement up and down a form cycle, or with respect to surface/distance preferences. Referring to the Raw SR in Val3c (screenshot below), you can see that if you add the SR and the TV together, you get the Raw SR reported by RDSS (the figure provided by TrackMaster). For example, in the last 3 races: (Val 89 + -8 = 81, per RDSS), (95 + -4 = 91), (95 + 0 = 95). For the DMR race in question: (86 + -2 = 84, per RDSS). (FYI, if you perform the same calculations in Spec160, you will get more-or-less within 1 SR point of the same answer, because Guy chose to avoid the TM horse’s SR number and use instead the Winners SR minus beaten lengths, which differed by rounding for fractional beaten lengths).

Note that if you extract out the DTV from the Raw SR in RDSS (by subtracting the DTV from the SR, e.g. 84 - -2 = 86), you still are left with a number which is mostly Speed Rating but partly Inter Track Variant as well. My view is that if you use the entire Raw TM Speed Rating, treat it as reasonable (and normalized) for comparing a horse’s own lines to each other and to other horses’ lines, find the Median SR of a set of horses if you wish, then you will indeed end up with contenders in the neighbourhood of likely to run at today’s pace. The 5 Steps of the Match Up (plus extra Voodoo if you dare), should slim down those contenders, and the various Analysis screens should then help making distinctions between the remaining horses, and perhaps also identify counter-energy and other likely in-the-money finishers for your exotics.

Bill, I hope this has helped, but feel free to ask for any further clarification and I’ll do my best.

Thanks for your efforts and study in trying to make RDSS work for you!

Ted