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Old 10-12-2017, 03:30 PM   #10
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
most appear to have legitimate pace, but understanding how the earlies react to that pace has been problematical.

I tend to use Brohamer's guidelines of close up at 2C or stretch and within so many lengths depending on the distance of the race (and then compare to see if it is close to the projected pace) . Still have problems with horses dropping when the guidelines are blown (and thereby defaulting to the race at or near todays class for rating purposes)
First, thanks for your response, Bill.

I like your concern with horses dropping down in class and how to rate them. I hate to get too far afield since this is off topic, but I think it is worth mentioning. More years ago than I care to think about, a guy taught me something I have never forgotten, and more importantly, a lesson that can be carried forward into other areas than just the one I will talk about.
Although you don’t see this scenario much anymore, back in those days in was not uncommon to see a horse with one race at the Maiden Special Weight level drop down in its’ next race to the $5,000 maiden claiming level. (As a side note, it is important for a horse to break its’ maiden as soon as possible.) The key to this drop in class was the horse’s first call in its’ only race. Purely as an example, let’s say the horse was 4th beaten 2 lengths at that first call. From there the horse would back up. That is all it would take for this horse to be a standout when it dropped down. In that $5,000 maiden claimer, this horse would fall out of the gate a couple of lengths in front and just go on to wire the field. There really isn’t any way to rate the horse at the second call, stretch call or at the finish. You could only be confident that the horse would get the job done. This was my introduction to just how important a class drop coupled with early speed can be, yet it is something that cannot be quantified. Bradshaw may have called this “voodoo”. I prefer to call it “knowledge”. Ok, on to the topic at hand.

As I read your response it occurred to me that I may not have made myself clear. Perhaps I should have said “EARLY pace scenario” rather than just pace scenario. The second call and stretch call are pretty far along. I wanted to focus on which horses will be contending for the lead at the first call and how each handicapper reaches that conclusion.
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