Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - M4$16/2 Oct 22-Capcondo

mick · 10-22-2016, 12:29 PM

#5 to Win and Place.

Projected pace (excluding #5) - 24.0/48.0/1:12.0/1:36.4
Contenders - 1, 3, 4, 5

I think it will be "Early" and I see #5 taking them gate to wire. My projected pace is a combination of #3 and #4's last running lines. #5 can handle those fractions easily and should have the lead on #3 down the back stretch and through the turn. My concern is whether he will have anything left in that last furlong. He has won at 6.5f, but not at 8f. If he fades late, I think it will be #4 or #1 at the wire. I'm not convinced that #3 can keep up and he's a NTL.

In his prime, P Val was great at hustling horses out of the gate and getting them to relax on the lead. (Ernie Dahlman said that he made a lot of money betting P Val first up.) I have no idea how he rides these days. Frankly, I had no idea he was still riding. I also had no idea where Zia Park is. Had to google it. :-)

mick

10-22-2016, 12:29 PM	#7
mick Abiding Student Join Date: May 2016 Posts: 711	#5 to Win and Place. Projected pace (excluding #5) - 24.0/48.0/1:12.0/1:36.4 Contenders - 1, 3, 4, 5 I think it will be "Early" and I see #5 taking them gate to wire. My projected pace is a combination of #3 and #4's last running lines. #5 can handle those fractions easily and should have the lead on #3 down the back stretch and through the turn. My concern is whether he will have anything left in that last furlong. He has won at 6.5f, but not at 8f. If he fades late, I think it will be #4 or #1 at the wire. I'm not convinced that #3 can keep up and he's a NTL. In his prime, P Val was great at hustling horses out of the gate and getting them to relax on the lead. (Ernie Dahlman said that he made a lot of money betting P Val first up.) I have no idea how he rides these days. Frankly, I had no idea he was still riding. I also had no idea where Zia Park is. Had to google it. :-) mick __________________ mick Illustrated Glossary Last edited by mick; 10-22-2016 at 12:43 PM.