[lueylump]

In my opinion the most important concept to ever hit horse racing was "The Matchup," popularized by Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw. Doc Sartin similarly acknowledged the importance of the matchup as he described a horse race as a symbiotic relationship between horses. Fortunately for Sartin Methodology wagercappers we have the most advanced tools ever created to visualize the mathchup, and the 5th Race at Golden Gate Fields on May 8, 2009 clearly illustrates some very important principles. It was a 6 furlong $4,000 claiming race carded for fillies and mares who had never won three races.

Before we analyze the race I acknowledge that I am very new to RDSS and have only had it for a few days. The important thing to remember is there are patterns established for many types of winning races, and we need to recognize those winning patterns. The presented patterns were effective with Multi-Track Synthesis, so I believe they will work even better with RDSS due to its refinements. My way of visualizing a race’s matchup is by studying the E/L Difference Graph (see below).

What this graph shows is energy distribution or the half of a race where a horse exerts its most energy. From the diagram we see that there are 6 horses with an early energy distribution, and 2 horses that distribute its energy late. A principle that has worked for me is the horse with the highest early energy distribution is the key to understanding how a race will be run, and has a clear advantage over other early horses that may actually have better raw figures! The horse with the highest early energy distribution in this race was #5. At this point I will briefly discuss each horse.

Nail P (#1) won 2 of its last 3 races, finished in the money in its last six races, and wired the field in its last race. It is compromised today because horse #5 has higher energy distribution.

Foggy (#2) has shown consistency routing finishing in the money in its last three and four of its last five races. Since this is a sprint I used its one sprint race 10 races back. It is one of two horses with a late energy distribution and is a question mark due to limited sprint races in its past performances.

Jet Jo (#3) is the favorite and also has shown consistency finishing in the money in 3 of its last 4 races. Also in tandem races it finished ahead of horses #4, #5, #6, and #8. This would automatically elevate this horse over its tandem competitors (based upon conventional wisdom). However, both #5 and *8 were ahead of #3 at the second call in its tandem races, and my experience is a horse that is ahead of another tandem horse at the second call has an advantage when they face one another again, and oftentimes will go off at much higher odds. #3 went off at 2/1 while #5 went off at 9/1 even though #3 only beat #5 by a head in its last head-to-head duel. #3 will be compromised because it is an early horse that has 4 other horses with a higher energy distribution than #3.

Serpet (#4) is another consistent horse finishing in the money in 7 of its last nine races, but has finished out of the money in two of its last three. Its numbers are competitive but with three early horses ahead of this one it is in tough. It has finished ahead of #6 in tandem races, but behind #’s 3, 4 and 8. It also does not have a defined running style because in one race it was ahead of #3 at the second call but behind #3 in its latest head-to-head battle.

Flamin (#5) would be considered the fulcrum horse in previous Sartin software releases and is the key to this race. It has the option of either going to the lead without exerting too much energy and wiring this field; or conserving energy, stalking the pace and showing a burst of acceleration either on the turn or in the stretch, and winning at good odds. This horse would be an automatic bet if there were no late horses in the race, but will be given very strong consideration in both win betting and gimmicks.

Polish (#6) has not finished in the money in its last three races and finished behind the winners by an average of 12 lengths. In its last race it has the best first fraction velocity but has very weak second and third fractions. It basically runs evenly and has no real acceleration at any point in the race, and since it is an early horse it is compromised by the five horses with an earlier energy distribution pattern.

I Love (#7) is the figure horse based upon its 4th race back and is still a strong contender with the pace line 2 races back. On the negative side it has not finished in the money in its last 5 races, over the past three races it has lost by an average of over 9 lengths, and its last race was a route race and finished behind the #2. Finally #s 1 and 5 have earlier energy distribution so this one is also compromised. This horse ran straight to the lead and opened up on the field, but because it ran faster than it wanted early it wilted in the lane and finished 5th.

Miss C (#8) is a very intriguing horse as it normally runs close to the lead but has a late energy pattern. It also had better early speed than #s 3, 4, and 5 when they ran in tandem while finishing behind #3 and 5. Its numbers are also very competitive so from all accounts this horse is live. Late horses that normally run close to the pace are one of the best bets one can make. It can go to the lead and wire the field since it knows how to conserve energy. It can also stalk the pace and still conserve energy and close late. Or it can lag behind the field and run late (this is the type to bet when you are certain the speed will break down but does not always get there if there is legitimate speed).

FYI, the odds respectively were as follows:

1. 7/2
2. 8/1
3. 2/1
4. 5/1
5. 9/1
6. 28/1
7. 3/1
8. 13/1


In summary #5 was a strong horse and other early horses were suspect because of its early speed advantage. On the late energy side #8 was also very strong while the #2 had question marks. However, the running patterns of the #2 and #8 deviated from the rest of the field, so despite its numbers, they must be given strong consideration because when the early horses begin to decelerate, they will accelerate. Consequently 5 and 8 were worth win bets; 2, 5, and 8 were worth an exacta box; and 5 and 8 were my key trifecta horses.

Horse #8 stalked the pace and won easily. #5 ran second; and #2 got up late for third all at decent prices (see results chart below):