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Old 07-11-2018, 03:00 PM   #5
mick
Abiding Student
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 711
Dr. Z "Place" Chart

I had the pleasure of "chauffeuring" Dr. Ziemba around Saratoga last August and enjoyed our conversations. I've heard that Andy Beyer "bets with both hands." I have no personal knowledge of that but I can assure you that Dr. Z certainly does.

Glad to see that his book Beat the Racetrack is being reprinted. I think it's required reading for all employees of betting syndicates (aka "the whales"). For anyone who isn't familiar with it, it's about patterns of betting inefficiency in the place and show pools. The concepts are simple, although the book is a difficult read for those who are math-challenged (like me).

His thesis is that the public is very good at estimating the chances of horses to win, but not so good at finishing second or third.

Here are a couple of screenshots to illustrate the point.
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mick

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