Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure
I really could ever follow any of things because I would ever eliminate a horse because it's 20/1 on the ML and can't eliminate a horse just because it's been off for 90+ days.
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Best of luck to you then.
Just so you know, I didn't wake up one morning and decide this was the best course of action.
I dislike doing this every time I do it, but you are new here, so here goes. I learned those two things as a result of hundreds of thousands of races and millions of horses in a database I keep.
I choose to work with the horses that are most likely to win 19 out of 20 races, not 1 out of 20 races. You don't have to work with horses that are 20/1 ML or greater in order to get a big price, which is what the race I posted here shows. In fact, there are MANY races posted in this teaching area using these same guidelines that paid the kind of prices one is looking for by working with ML 20/1 or greater horses. Statistically, they just had a better chance of actually winning the race.
The same is true by eliminating horses off more than 90 days. As I said when I posted this race, 95% of ALL WINNERS have raced in the last 90 days. One can either work with the horses most likely to win, or search for that needle in the haystack.
In the end, I think it is hard to sell something new, short, before actually trying it and keeping records for yourself. You never know, you might learn something new. I know I did. I didn't always follow these extra guidelines. I learned from keeping a database. I let that teach me what things are statistically better to follow than others. In 15 years of accumulating races and horses, it just never changes.
Just a suggestion here, it might be a good idea to read through this thread
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8784 as well as many of ther other threads in this area. I think you will find them informative.