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Topic for discussion: when collecting data in a parimutuel game, I would suggest that tote-board public betting choices need to be tabulated as well. Like they say in poker, it's not how many pots you win, it's how big the pots are when you win. Similarly, when betting horses, we are betting AGAINST the computer robots and the syndicates, both of whom receive larger rebates than any individual, and have access to making multiple wagers at the bell. Remember, if someone in the betting pool is receiving a larger rebate than you are, you are effectively betting at a higher take-out.
Because of this structure, the closing tote odds are very efficient estimates of a horse's probability of winning. In fact, many of the large syndicates include the tote odds in their formulas to estimate win probabilities. Remember, we only want to make +EV bets (positive expected value), so we need a horse's odds to exceed its probability of winning. In the case of 2-horse betting, the net odds after adjusting for the losing bet and the dutch weightings must exceed the cumulative win probability of the 2 horse "group".
These days, favorites are winning at a close to 40%, and the top 2 favorites at closes to 60%. Contender selection needs to include price as well as percentages.
Bottom line, calculating win percentage without including the tote odds gives results that are not statistically significant. Sorry to pour cold water on all the hard work and analysis, but the analysis needs to be expanded. Thanks. Thoughts?
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