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Bill:
We met last summer at Saratoga.
A few thoughts:
1. For your sample, show what percentage the tote favorite won, the second favorite, third favorite, and fourth, with a cumulative percentage. This can help show whether your Rx3/paceline selection is any improvement on what the "public" is able to do on the races you bet.
2. Calculate the average odds of your sample of winners selected. Here is why this is important: to simplify, let's say you can pick a winner 50% of the time, but the average odds on your winners is only 4/5. That is -EV. Conversely, let's say, my selection only wins 25% of the time, but my average odds are 4-1. That is +EV. But on the spreadsheet right now, by not including average odds, your 50% looks better than my 25%.
Hope this helps.
Richard
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