|
BC Turf sprint, Race 4 - Saturday
Contenders pacelines and running style:
Looks to be run quite quickly. I started by giving each horse its running style based on very quick fractions and then looked to see the furthest position back from which each horse won or was within about 1/2 a length. The 2 quickest appear to be the 1 and 5. the 1 has broken 4th in last two and either gets or pushes lead; the 5 is more likely to break first, but the faster 1C for the 1 probably puts these two eyeball to eyeball. You can see about 6 others that need to be or very near the lead to win, so this pace cooks them out.
The 2 won last year by coming from off the pace down the hill at SA. I am confused because all other good races last yr were early and comeback effort this yr was early. Last yrs adjusted speed rating was 82. I usually allow another 5 pts to the SA turf sprints, so the 2 could be on the board at 87 which is close to the top figures of 90 and 89???
That leaves the 3-7-9-11-15 as horses vs fast paces that win from mid to late pack. the 3 is my favorite and then the 9.
The 2 and 3 are top 2 in both APV and Class; the 3 is top 5 CSR (5th)
Good luck to you all,
|