Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

gl45 · 06-21-2017, 07:29 AM

A quote from Bill V.

"We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing
who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on".
My friend Jeff (shoeless) introduced me to Parx, also Bill, favorite track.
Before I even consider to invest money in a track that I don't know nothing about, I need to run a track profile to see which one of my three (3) contenders is winning and how the winners is performing. What I mean by performing "which of my 3 contenders was leading at the 2nd call or position less than 4th".
A small data sample, about 100 races for each distance would give me a small indication of what I'm looking for, I haven't reach that number but for what I see it looks promising.

At 6f, after 32 races one of my contender was leading at the 2c 14 times and won the race.
One of my contender was 2nd position at the 2c 6 times, and won the race
One of my contender was 3rd position at the 2c 7 times, and won the race.
It seems to me that my contenders do retain enough energy to win the race.

27 races @ 6f out of 32 the winner was position less than 4th at the 2c, and the average winner paid $15.48. I don't invest in winners, DD and PK3 is my forte.

Races are won E or OTE. If you are able to devise a method that incorporate 3 E horses and 3 L horses and win about 32% of the time at the average winner of $15.48, you will make money.

The caveat is what numbers to use to find successfully the 3 Early and Late horses.

06-21-2017, 07:29 AM	#20
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	Tpr A quote from Bill V. "We can also ask can you do the match up without knowing who the leaders will be at the second call and can those leaders have enough late energy to hold on". My friend Jeff (shoeless) introduced me to Parx, also Bill, favorite track. Before I even consider to invest money in a track that I don't know nothing about, I need to run a track profile to see which one of my three (3) contenders is winning and how the winners is performing. What I mean by performing "which of my 3 contenders was leading at the 2nd call or position less than 4th". A small data sample, about 100 races for each distance would give me a small indication of what I'm looking for, I haven't reach that number but for what I see it looks promising. At 6f, after 32 races one of my contender was leading at the 2c 14 times and won the race. One of my contender was 2nd position at the 2c 6 times, and won the race One of my contender was 3rd position at the 2c 7 times, and won the race. It seems to me that my contenders do retain enough energy to win the race. 27 races @ 6f out of 32 the winner was position less than 4th at the 2c, and the average winner paid $15.48. I don't invest in winners, DD and PK3 is my forte. Races are won E or OTE. If you are able to devise a method that incorporate 3 E horses and 3 L horses and win about 32% of the time at the average winner of $15.48, you will make money. The caveat is what numbers to use to find successfully the 3 Early and Late horses. Last edited by gl45; 06-21-2017 at 07:48 AM.