Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 10-14-2021, 11:14 AM

Forgot to add a few things I left out from those years of study.

1) one needs to find out what % of the pool is contained in our selection(s). There is a great article at the AQHA website about creating morning line and a review of "bookie points." These represent the % of the total pool that, let's say, 2/1 represents. You can calculate it easily or use the table at this website. 2/1 works out to be flipped (denominator and numerator so you get 1/2. then ADD one to the new denominator to get 1/2 =1 or 1/3 which is 33 points for 33%..3/1 becomes 1/3.... 1/3 + 1 or 1/4 then 25 points of 25% The total adds up to these entries percentage of the total money in the pool. You don't want to wander into pools that have only 45% available. https://www.aqha.com/-/the-morning-line

2) in my review of play over those 2 1/2 years, whenever I completely missed a horse in a race, I would mark (in red) "Odd Man Out." After about 30 days I would look into those races and found that over 80% of those horses missed were super early (top 3 F1's) and expanded my look after that. That percentage remained throughout my study.

3) in the book, The New Expert Handicappers there is a great line that I wrote down and keep here at the desk: "If you think in terms of having to walk a mile to make your wagers, and still would do that, THOSE are the races to make sure you cover." https://www.amazon.com/New-Expert-Ha.../dp/0688075118

4) Very few books on horse racing accurately address, seriously, and with practical ideas, the practice of wager creation. The Odds are on Your Side (Cramer), The Four Quarters of Horse Investing: Plus: betting line Construction (Fierro), and Dick Mitchell's Winning Thoroughbred Strategies. I would search carefully for these if you do not already won them because prices are often through the roof on these out of print works.

5) We all know, by conversations with friend who chose the same horse that we did that there is NO ONE WAY to EVER find the winner handicapping wise. I often state that it is like various ways to climb up a mountain. The WAGERING side of the coin is much more rigid akin to the way an accountant would cover their client's books. Each of us needs to create a set of rules and never waver from it much like a decision tree i.e. "if this then that, and so one.

I would just like to see many move toward the epiphany I discovered with my game, and to balance evaluation with wager creation...It SHOULD be based upon what we find out for ourselves through reviews of OUR BEHAVIOR.

ONE thing I solidly discovered : HARDLY ANYONE wins at Hawthorne!

10-14-2021, 11:14 AM	#2
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Forgot to add a few things I left out from those years of study. 1) one needs to find out what % of the pool is contained in our selection(s). There is a great article at the AQHA website about creating morning line and a review of "bookie points." These represent the % of the total pool that, let's say, 2/1 represents. You can calculate it easily or use the table at this website. 2/1 works out to be flipped (denominator and numerator so you get 1/2. then ADD one to the new denominator to get 1/2 =1 or 1/3 which is 33 points for 33%..3/1 becomes 1/3.... 1/3 + 1 or 1/4 then 25 points of 25% The total adds up to these entries percentage of the total money in the pool. You don't want to wander into pools that have only 45% available. https://www.aqha.com/-/the-morning-line 2) in my review of play over those 2 1/2 years, whenever I completely missed a horse in a race, I would mark (in red) "Odd Man Out." After about 30 days I would look into those races and found that over 80% of those horses missed were super early (top 3 F1's) and expanded my look after that. That percentage remained throughout my study. 3) in the book, The New Expert Handicappers there is a great line that I wrote down and keep here at the desk: "If you think in terms of having to walk a mile to make your wagers, and still would do that, THOSE are the races to make sure you cover." https://www.amazon.com/New-Expert-Ha.../dp/0688075118 4) Very few books on horse racing accurately address, seriously, and with practical ideas, the practice of wager creation. The Odds are on Your Side (Cramer), The Four Quarters of Horse Investing: Plus: betting line Construction (Fierro), and Dick Mitchell's Winning Thoroughbred Strategies. I would search carefully for these if you do not already won them because prices are often through the roof on these out of print works. 5) We all know, by conversations with friend who chose the same horse that we did that there is NO ONE WAY to EVER find the winner handicapping wise. I often state that it is like various ways to climb up a mountain. The WAGERING side of the coin is much more rigid akin to the way an accountant would cover their client's books. Each of us needs to create a set of rules and never waver from it much like a decision tree i.e. "if this then that, and so one. I would just like to see many move toward the epiphany I discovered with my game, and to balance evaluation with wager creation...It SHOULD be based upon what we find out for ourselves through reviews of OUR BEHAVIOR. ONE thing I solidly discovered : HARDLY ANYONE wins at Hawthorne! __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."