Question on Paceline Selection - DMR0828 R2
General question on paceline and race analysis. I'm not an RDSS user and I have attached the PP's (note the fractions displayed are the horse fraction times, not the actual race times) and a printout from a homemade pace program I have built.
I admit I did not have the winner in this race, but thought this was a good example to get some feedback on regarding paceline and contender selection.
TPR's are adjusted for today's distance, if adjustment was necessary.
Horse 1 - Two Six Wins - Horse earned a + effort with second in similar condition in last. 3rd off the layoff today. He's a contender based on just missing at this level last time out.
Paceline selection - Wasn't sure where to go on this one. The last race was a change in tactics as this horse was coming from off the pace in a sprint, all the other sprint lines in the PP's show this horse as an E or EP horse. Based on that, I ued the line on 3Sep15DMR as it was over this strip and that I rated as a (+) race based on the horse showing up close for the first two calls before fading to a loss by 6 lengths.
TPR Ratings - Last Race, 93-86/179, paceline selected 93-78/171
Horse 2 - Nueces - Throw out last line based on bumping at the start, rated this one an E and used the line 2 back, a win sprinting.
TPR - Last Race 88-59/147, paceline selected 84-90/174
Horse 3 - Lambo Luxx - Horse taking a significant drop in class from AOC company into 16k claimers. I'm suspicious that this horse hasn't run much since it's last plus + October of last year for $40k. I'll give it a break and use the 25Oct15 race based on the drop in class and put it in the contender mix.
TPR - Last race 98-86/184 (but I think my data has the times and BL wrong, thus the PP's are incorrect and this TPR is most likely very inaccurate), selected paceline 94-88/182
Horse 4 - NF - Never on the board in a dirt race
Horse 6 - Look Twice - Last line was a win, fastest and best line in last, this is the fulcrum horse.
TPR 94-85/179
Horse 7 - Stormin Trick - Nothing on this horse's PP's stuck out at me to warrant using coming off a 0 race 14 days ago and an uninspiring (+) race 2 back. I tossed this horse for contention.
So based on the fulcrum, I figure the EP time for this race will be 45 1/5
I've recently been experimenting with finding the fulcrum horse and trying to accurately gauge what the pace call time of the race will be. I did 4 races on Sunday, and correctly guessed the actual EP time of all 4 four races and had the winner on various tickets in 3 of the 4. Except for this one.
Here's where I'm second guessing myself a bit. As I mentioned earlier, I have my default PP settings to show the horse's fraction, not the actual race fraction. I'm wondering if I did not correctly guestimate a horse's true ability. Since I know today's pace call will be about 45 1/5, should I be looking for horses who have + races in races where the pace call was 45 1/5 or where the horse itself ran at or close to 45 1/5? I based my picks in this particular race on horses who ran to the call time of 45 1/5, not necessarily horses who were from off the pace of the same time.
I selected the 6 horse as my top pick based on the fact that Del Mar has been favoring outside posts and winners are typically coming from 0-2 lengths off the pace, and the 3 as my second choice off the 98-86/184 TPR figure, which was better than the fulcrum horse in today's race and I initially viewed the horse as dropping in class to a more competitive level. I admit in hindsight, I should've read more deeply into this runner as a negative class dropper.
What about the 1 horse? In a situation like this, do you write the last line off because of a different run style that appears nowhere in the PP's or is last race truly indicative of current form and ability and should this horse now be considered as a P or S runner? Which would mostly disqualify this horse for contention as P and S runners are at an extreme disadvantage sprinting at Del Mar.
Thanks for reading and for the feedback.
|