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Old 04-13-2018, 02:34 AM   #42
Mark
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
Picking pacelines

In the last year I have changed the way I get to my paceline selection for each horse in the race. I still don't care where it is in the horse's pps. And I hope the majority of horseplayers continue to focus on the best of the last 3 comparable.Because that opens the door to good to great mutuels for me.
I have to project the 1st fraction of any race that I am going to wager money on. The better I have gotten at that the more money I have made. The options provided by RDSS are enough, perfect, No, but good enough.
Bradshaw used three questions to qualify a deep paceline: 1) Is the horse still a horse? 2) Has the horse changed his Running style and become a slow horse? 3) Can the horse still get on top of his fractions?
We want to bet on fast horses but we are looking at historical data whether the horse ran last week or last year. Horses change in the maturation process which will often change their abilities, to say nothing of injuries and the wear and tear of racing but if they are fit and sound they can often run back to or very close to there most recent TOP.
It all comes back to those early fractions and if you can't figure out a method to consistently project them accurately and measure each horse against them in today's race, then all the other stuff becomes fun with numbers.
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