[Bill Lyster]

I made some mistakes in choosing my contenders based on how I perceived their positions at the mile call, so I went back and looked at the chart from August 29, the tandem race for Worth Repeating and Buenos Dias.

both ran in this 11 furlong race. I interpreted the RDSS readout for the stretch call to be the mile call which is incorrect. For 11 furlong races the stretch call looks like the 10 furlong call and actual mile positions off the lead are closer to what is shown as the 2nd call, but in fact, one can only guess at the lengths back in this instance, if all you use is the RDSS info. Actual position can only be determined from the charts as BD was shown as 14.5 lengths behind at the mile call and Worth Repeating was 12 lengths behind.

Instead of running somewhere near 134.20 they were actually running 136.6 in the case of Worth Repeating and 137.1 for Buenos Dias.

Using the same pacelines that I used here the times and positions would be:

Worth 2nd by 12, mile time 136.6, gaining position from 2nd to 1st
Treat 2nd by 2, mile time 138.8, gaining from 2nd to 1st
Unusual 3rd by 1.5, mile time 136.6, gaining positions from 4th to 3rd
Buenos 5th by 14.5, mile time 137.1, gaining positions from 5th to 3rd
Marlang 1st by 2.5, mile time 135.7, open lead
Temple 1st by 1, mile time 136.4, open lead

I would still see the two early horses cancelling each other out and as the race ran Temple outdueled Marlang early, but Marlang pushed from about 1.5+ or so off. The favorite Treat was too slow by this analysis and if you look into the last two races of Worth, he backed up against slower paces (114's), so I am not going to redboard this and pick the winner, but it shows that two closers Unusual and Buenos were good enough (placed 1st and 3rd). This race was gettable with a better analysis by yours truly.

Hopefully I will not make this type of mistake again.


Best regards,

Bill