Hello,
This is an interesting article. Thanks for sharing. I have heard racegoers explain away wins and losses 'after' the race by citing the body weight of the horse.
A recent example is from Indian racing (under the section at the end called "Bulky Problem") at
https://punemirror.indiatimes.com/co...w/65329346.cms.
I have not analyzed the measurable impact or determine any winning formula looking at just Body Weight related factors. Has anyone on this forum been able to crack this factor?
I prepared the Body Weight data for Hong Kong races for the last three seasons (representing 2384 races) and 29,430 runners in the attached 3 spreadsheets ( had to break them up as I was running into file size limits).
Here is a description of the data in the files. I would be happy to update these to include any other factor that someone may be interested in to answer this question.
RACE_DATE --- Date of Race
RACEREF --- Race Number. 35 signifies the 2015-16 Season, 36 =2016-2017 37=2017-18 season
HORSE --- Name of the Horse
DISTANCE --- Distance the horse is running in
CLASS_CD --- Class
RANK --- Rank in the race
N_CLOSING_ODDS --- Dividend for $10 (includes the original $10 bet)
NET_ODDS --- Net Odds
HORSE_BODY_WEIGHT --- Body weight of the horse in today's race
PREV_HORSE_BODY_WEIGHT --- Body weight of the horse in the immediately preceding race
SIG_LR_CHANGE_IN_BODY_WEIGHT --- Change in Body weight from the Last race
SIG_LR_PERC_CHANGE_IN_BODY_WEIGHT --- Percentage change in Body weight from the Last race
AVG_HORSE_BODY_WEIGHT --- Average Body weight of the horse from prior run going back to ~ July 2015
SIG_CHANGE_IN_BW_FROM_AVG --- Change in Body weight from the above Average
SIG_PERC_CHANGE_IN_BW_FROM_AVG --- Percentage change in Body weight from the above Average
AVG_WINNING_BODY_WEIGHT --- Average Winning Body weight of the horse (if and when it won) from prior run going back to ~ July 2015
SIG_CHANGE_IN_BW_FROM_WIN --- Change in Body weight from the above Average Winning Body weight
SIG_PERC_CHANGE_IN_BW_FROM_WIN --- Percentage change in Body weight from the above Average Winning Body weight
Regards
--Sohil Patel