Thread: The Belmont
View Single Post
Old 06-11-2011, 02:37 PM   #17
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,854
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Ted, Would not #8Prime cut be the swing horse and therefore become the #1 E by virtue of his 101 high rating and either the 10 or 12 horses being the other E since they are basically tied at 98 &97
Prime Cut is the Swing horse, but pretty far down the Early Speed% list (5th). Shackleford is dominant over MMM with 67% of the top 2 Early Speed, so he needs to be designated the #1 Early. I can see making a case though for Prime as #2 Early with his superior high SR. According to the current software rules (not saying they're perfect), we just use the 2nd ES% horse as the #2, but perhaps that's what the brain is for!

For some users, the #1 Early Speed% (double RED) is the 'kiss of death' for Win. Based on other RDSS analysis, I'm not sure MMM is Shackleford's worst Early nightmare, so his #1 ES ranking might not be a 'liability' here. It would not surprise me for Shackleford to go all the way on the front end (just like Da'Tara 3 years ago!)

Perhaps the above analysis is a good one to pose to Dave S in the EL2/NewPace discussion forum.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 06-11-2011 at 02:44 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote