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Old 01-23-2019, 05:22 PM   #14
Bill Lyster
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
First just a few 7f races from SA:

Note that V/dc and BL/BL dominate at SA. (I only showed columns with significant top 4 percentages.) Several columns only have ones and twos. There can be ties represented here, but usually two horses fill these spots



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Then quite a few more from GP:

Note how final odds and CSR dominate for this distance at GP (it can be different for other distances!) Top choice at 7f wins 50% of the time for the period of this model; 67% top two; 89% top three, etc.

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This is why I said 7 furlong races using best of last 3 comparable was, so far, the most dependable model.

Get winnin'
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