Mitch, Thanks for your contribution to this post. We are on the same page "To beat this game one has to pick winners regardless of price". That is very true.
People who wait for a horse to be 2-1 or 3-1 before they can bet on it will never cash big tickets. And the funny thing is
most long shots are not actually long shots. They are logical, legitimate contenders. But their abilities are overshadowed by their odds. Look at this race carefully. Only two horses in the field won their last race recently: #1 and #11. And because they won recently, they are still in good form. Why are they long shots in this race? Is it because of "statistics"?
or because the racing secretary has so decided?
Well, I don't wait for the odds to make a horse look attractive to me. I'll catch these so-called long shots whenever they show up at my door.