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Old 03-15-2017, 07:30 PM   #7
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Quote:
Originally Posted by gandalf380 View Post
Doc used to say he could not handicap without a racing form and why one should always try to determine a possible pace of race. Once you throw out the noncentenders, you can get down to picking an appropriate pace line. I believe that too many handicappers do that in reverse.
I would be guilty as charged. The way I handicap, I focus on 1) fulcrum if there is one, 2) tandem races and 3) the top 1-2 Class Rating horses. If/when I select a paceline from one of those horses, I will use their PoH Total Energy as a fulcrum at that point, giving myself a general idea of matchup. Then I'll go horse by horse and identify +, 0 and plus/zero performances as well as look at the whole horse (surface/distance record, run style, TE, TPR sticks, etc) to get an idea. Even if their + or plus/zero race has a lower TE, I will still select the line so not to make a premature elimination. I will do this for every horse until every horse either has or doesn't have a line. Those with lines move to the Energy screen where I narrow down to generally 4-5 runners. Only then will I go to other screens to whittle things down to the betting possibilities. The key for me is being able to either "buy" or not take certain lines at face value. Tom Brohamer once warned to avoid the "giraffe" race that sticks out when it doesn't jive with reality. It could be a flukey track variant, track condition or other factors. Once you use a line that weighs a horse too generously, you risk pushing other runners out of contention. I have successfully chucked chalks in this fashion.

Bottom line, do what is best for you! Best of luck!
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