Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Documentation

Ted Craven · 11-30-2017, 04:21 PM

Folks,

I have updated the RDSS 2.1 Testing Version to Version 2.1.045 (November 30, 2017). You can download it in the V2.1 Download Thread. Here are the additions (a short list):

1. Aqueduct Inner Turf course shows up properly now in the Card Summary Listing, and on all other references to races run on this new surface, which replaced the old Inner Dirt course. Like other tracks with 2 distinct Turf courses (SAR, BEL, CBY, GP), the Inner Turf course is now designated as 't' in the Surface column, while the Outer Turf Course is designated as 'T'.

2. Updated the Model Export to Excel and CSV files. There is a new MasterTemplate Excel file (MasterTemplate4.xlsx) with columns added at the end to accommodate and properly label the new factors on the Rx screen. MasterTemplate4.xlsx is added to the \Rdss2.1\Models\Templates\ folder The new columns added in the Template are as follows:

Column Factor
EB.........TSF3+ rank - a supplementary, composite factor comprising True Speed (final time) of the Race, Fraction 3 of the Race and Total Energy of the Horse (Note: in previous versions, this Column was labeled Rx1; it is NOT the same info as the rank in the new Rx1 factor)

EC.........Race Id - ignore, for internal use(you can Hide this Column)

ED.........Field Size - number of runners after Scatches

EE.........Contender Group - 10 Primary, 20 Secondary, 99 Non-Contender group (according to any user-designations)

EF..........Rx1 Rank - see Rx1 Documentation (includes the Morning Line rank as the 'power number')

EG..........Rx2 Rank - see Rx2 Documentation (includes an extra dose of CR+ rank as the 'power number')

EH..........Rx3 Rank - see Rx3 Documentation (includes the ProfitLine rank from TwinSpires as the 'power number')

EI...........Rx3 Probability % - the probability % (out of 100%) of the Rx3 rating (all numbers for a race add up to 100%)

EJ...........Morning Line Odds Rank

EK..........Tote Xray 1 Rank - this is a duplicate of Column BW from the Odds/Mutuels section (Cols BT - CB). Just putting all the Tote analysis numbers in one place.(Note: these are post-race ranks).

EL..........Tote Xray 2 Rank - aka PW% (Place to Win percent ratio). Just putting all the Tote analysis numbers in one place. (Note: these are post-race ranks).

In RDSS, if you are running the Toteboard, when you create an Export file you'll get tote info. If you have added ProfitLine info from TwinSpires, you'll get that. If the race is over and you have retrieved Results and Mutuels from TwinSpires (or in later versions, from the other sources like Supertote or the Equibase Full Result Charts), they will appear as well in the Export file. If you don't have any of the above info, you can still create an Export file, but those data won't show up.

Spreadsheet Layout.

There are 4 Tabs: All, Win, Place and Other.If you want to make a Tab for Show, make a copy of the Other Tab; if you want any other Tabs for specific interesting subsets of races (e.g. Maidens, Routes, Turf Sprints, etc, etc), make a copy from the Other Tab.

RDSS 2.1.045 (also V2.1.044 for those who downloaded Version .044 last week) creates an Excel Export file in the Models folder when you click on the Export Icon in any Analysis panel. If you make a Folder named CSV in the Models folder, the Export module will also create a CSV format file if you need that. By default, there are no column headers in the Export file (because you don't normally interact with the Export file). If you find you want column headers in the Export file, go to the Configure Tab, click the Edit Config File button, find the [General] section, then somewhere after that line add the line: Export_headers=1 then Save and Close the Config file. Then restart RDSS.

The Excel Export files are in the new layout described above, and match the new MasterTemplate4 file. You should use this new Template file going forward. If you have added any custom columns to spreadsheets based on the old MasterTemplate3, I suggest you relocate these columns to at least the range of Column FA or further out.

The new MasterTemplate4 sheet is vertically divided (by default) to show Columns A-v at the left, and the right-most new columns at the right (depending on how wide your screen is). You can change this dividing bar however you would like it (or remove it), and you can Hide in the MasterTemplate any columns you don't want to see - to make the working spreadsheet more concise.

Creating Models from Export Files

To create Models from the Excel Export files, first make a copy of the new MasterTemplate4.xlsx file and place it in the Models folder (e.g. name it: AQU.Model.Dec.2017.xlsx). Open this Model file. Open the Excel Export file for each individual race after you create it in RDSS, and copy all rows (except any Header row you might have added). Insert these Copied rows into the ALL Tab in the Model file (right-click at the next blank line and choose Insert Copied Rows). Put ALL the pacelines from a given race into the ALL Tab. For example, if you have 10 races for the day, 10 horses per race (1 line for each horse in the exported Analysis set) you will end up with 100 lines for that day added to the ALL Tab. (Hint: having ALL pacelines from an Analysis set for a race lets you later go back to conduct any kind of analysis on that data).

When you have all pacelines added to the ALL Tab, I suggest then using Ctrl+Click on the multiple rows you want to copy. For example, to copy all rows for Winners, look in Column I ('Result') for rank=1 (the Winner) and Ctrl+Click on the row (at the left edge), then continue to the next race and so on for all races you have added to the ALL Tab. When you have highlighted all Winners' rows, either use Ctrl+C to Copy, or right-click on the row (at the left edge) and choose Copy. Then switch to the Win Tab, position the cursor in the next blank row, right-click and select Insert Copied Cells. This adds all Winners' lines to the destination Win Tab. Inserting Copied Cells (rather than just using Paste) maintains the colour coding for ranks 1-4.

To copy Place horses to the Place Tab Model, do the same as the above, looking in the Results Column for rank=2 (the Place horse).

Statistics

The updated Stats Block at the bottom appears in the Win, Place ad Other Tabs. If you always Insert the added rows (rather than simply Paste them), the formulas in the Stats Block will continue to summarize all rows above them. (Plus, you'll need to use Insert to add more rows after the first 20 entries - the amount of blank rows provided in the Template). Stats appear in ranked columns (those with a # in the Column Header) Current Stats are a Count, % ranks 1,2,3,4,5+ and rank groups Top2%, Top3% and Top4%.

Stats with Hit % at or above 67% are shown with red text on pink background to catch your eye. As you enter more and more lines, browse through the Stats block for factors (according to how you have filtered your Model) which show some pink Stats. Factors showing 67% in the Top 3 start to be interesting, 78% or 80%+ in the Top 3 even more so. Several Factors show consistent hit rates of 80%+ in the top 4 (Rx3 rank, ML Odds rank, Live Win Odds rank, Tx1 and/or 2 ranks, and others depending on race type and track).

Missing Stuff and Other Notes

Another edition of a MasterTemplate coming soon will add in critical ROI% data to the Stats Block (e.g. ROI% of a $2 Win bet on each Factor Rank, or multiple bets on a group of ranks). Stats based on Exacta Mutuels will show the ROI% of boxes and part-wheels of combination ranks.

Please note that some Factors have tied ranks and the Stats for these Factors are inflated. VDC is one such Factor, the Rx factors less so but sometimes you do have multiple Rx tied rank 1s, or Rank 2s, etc which serve to reduce the overall hit rates. I am working on evolving the Rx factors further to eliminate ties by various means (adding in tie-breaking significant factors like Total Energy or Live Tote Odds).

Please note that if you use Default Configuration Settings (or even consistent customized settings), your Stats will all be comparable to each other and you will have Factor models at your disposal to model significant impacts of various factors and ranges of values at different tracks, surfaces, distancs and race types (which is the purpose of a Model in the first place).

If anyone is doing interesting work with their Spreadsheets using ROI calculations or anything else and would like to contribute that work to the collective (or just wants to spruce up my rather primitive sheets) - please do let me know! I can use all the help I can get

Having described the new Modeling abilities of RDSS 2.1 (and with a tutorial video to come shortly, below), and having worked with Models for the past month more than in the past several years - I must say this is all terribly tedious

(though highly informative!). Exporting to Excel files and copying them to Template files has always been intended as a stop-gap until automatic and much more painless Modeling, Profiling and other Record Keeping can be brought into the in-house RDSS Records Module. Getting that set up has been even more work than the boring work of managing exported Excel Model files - but is where we are heading. For the record!

Enjoy the new Modeling features!

11-30-2017, 04:21 PM	#5
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,854	Updated Version 2.1.045 Folks, I have updated the RDSS 2.1 Testing Version to Version 2.1.045 (November 30, 2017). You can download it in the V2.1 Download Thread. Here are the additions (a short list): 1. Aqueduct Inner Turf course shows up properly now in the Card Summary Listing, and on all other references to races run on this new surface, which replaced the old Inner Dirt course. Like other tracks with 2 distinct Turf courses (SAR, BEL, CBY, GP), the Inner Turf course is now designated as 't' in the Surface column, while the Outer Turf Course is designated as 'T'. 2. Updated the Model Export to Excel and CSV files. There is a new MasterTemplate Excel file (MasterTemplate4.xlsx) with columns added at the end to accommodate and properly label the new factors on the Rx screen. MasterTemplate4.xlsx is added to the \Rdss2.1\Models\Templates\ folder The new columns added in the Template are as follows: Column Factor EB.........TSF3+ rank - a supplementary, composite factor comprising True Speed (final time) of the Race, Fraction 3 of the Race and Total Energy of the Horse (Note: in previous versions, this Column was labeled Rx1; it is NOT the same info as the rank in the new Rx1 factor) EC.........Race Id - ignore, for internal use(you can Hide this Column) ED.........Field Size - number of runners after Scatches EE.........Contender Group - 10 Primary, 20 Secondary, 99 Non-Contender group (according to any user-designations) EF..........Rx1 Rank - see Rx1 Documentation (includes the Morning Line rank as the 'power number') EG..........Rx2 Rank - see Rx2 Documentation (includes an extra dose of CR+ rank as the 'power number') EH..........Rx3 Rank - see Rx3 Documentation (includes the ProfitLine rank from TwinSpires as the 'power number') EI...........Rx3 Probability % - the probability % (out of 100%) of the Rx3 rating (all numbers for a race add up to 100%) EJ...........Morning Line Odds Rank EK..........Tote Xray 1 Rank - this is a duplicate of Column BW from the Odds/Mutuels section (Cols BT - CB). Just putting all the Tote analysis numbers in one place.(Note: these are post-race ranks). EL..........Tote Xray 2 Rank - aka PW% (Place to Win percent ratio). Just putting all the Tote analysis numbers in one place. (Note: these are post-race ranks). In RDSS, if you are running the Toteboard, when you create an Export file you'll get tote info. If you have added ProfitLine info from TwinSpires, you'll get that. If the race is over and you have retrieved Results and Mutuels from TwinSpires (or in later versions, from the other sources like Supertote or the Equibase Full Result Charts), they will appear as well in the Export file. If you don't have any of the above info, you can still create an Export file, but those data won't show up. Spreadsheet Layout. There are 4 Tabs: All, Win, Place and Other.If you want to make a Tab for Show, make a copy of the Other Tab; if you want any other Tabs for specific interesting subsets of races (e.g. Maidens, Routes, Turf Sprints, etc, etc), make a copy from the Other Tab. RDSS 2.1.045 (also V2.1.044 for those who downloaded Version .044 last week) creates an Excel Export file in the Models folder when you click on the Export Icon in any Analysis panel. If you make a Folder named CSV in the Models folder, the Export module will also create a CSV format file if you need that. By default, there are no column headers in the Export file (because you don't normally interact with the Export file). If you find you want column headers in the Export file, go to the Configure Tab, click the Edit Config File button, find the [General] section, then somewhere after that line add the line: Export_headers=1 then Save and Close the Config file. Then restart RDSS. The Excel Export files are in the new layout described above, and match the new MasterTemplate4 file. You should use this new Template file going forward. If you have added any custom columns to spreadsheets based on the old MasterTemplate3, I suggest you relocate these columns to at least the range of Column FA or further out. The new MasterTemplate4 sheet is vertically divided (by default) to show Columns A-v at the left, and the right-most new columns at the right (depending on how wide your screen is). You can change this dividing bar however you would like it (or remove it), and you can Hide in the MasterTemplate any columns you don't want to see - to make the working spreadsheet more concise. Creating Models from Export Files To create Models from the Excel Export files, first make a copy of the new MasterTemplate4.xlsx file and place it in the Models folder (e.g. name it: AQU.Model.Dec.2017.xlsx). Open this Model file. Open the Excel Export file for each individual race after you create it in RDSS, and copy all rows (except any Header row you might have added). Insert these Copied rows into the ALL Tab in the Model file (right-click at the next blank line and choose Insert Copied Rows). Put ALL the pacelines from a given race into the ALL Tab. For example, if you have 10 races for the day, 10 horses per race (1 line for each horse in the exported Analysis set) you will end up with 100 lines for that day added to the ALL Tab. (Hint: having ALL pacelines from an Analysis set for a race lets you later go back to conduct any kind of analysis on that data). When you have all pacelines added to the ALL Tab, I suggest then using Ctrl+Click on the multiple rows you want to copy. For example, to copy all rows for Winners, look in Column I ('Result') for rank=1 (the Winner) and Ctrl+Click on the row (at the left edge), then continue to the next race and so on for all races you have added to the ALL Tab. When you have highlighted all Winners' rows, either use Ctrl+C to Copy, or right-click on the row (at the left edge) and choose Copy. Then switch to the Win Tab, position the cursor in the next blank row, right-click and select Insert Copied Cells. This adds all Winners' lines to the destination Win Tab. Inserting Copied Cells (rather than just using Paste) maintains the colour coding for ranks 1-4. To copy Place horses to the Place Tab Model, do the same as the above, looking in the Results Column for rank=2 (the Place horse). Statistics The updated Stats Block at the bottom appears in the Win, Place ad Other Tabs. If you always Insert the added rows (rather than simply Paste them), the formulas in the Stats Block will continue to summarize all rows above them. (Plus, you'll need to use Insert to add more rows after the first 20 entries - the amount of blank rows provided in the Template). Stats appear in ranked columns (those with a # in the Column Header) Current Stats are a Count, % ranks 1,2,3,4,5+ and rank groups Top2%, Top3% and Top4%. Stats with Hit % at or above 67% are shown with red text on pink background to catch your eye. As you enter more and more lines, browse through the Stats block for factors (according to how you have filtered your Model) which show some pink Stats. Factors showing 67% in the Top 3 start to be interesting, 78% or 80%+ in the Top 3 even more so. Several Factors show consistent hit rates of 80%+ in the top 4 (Rx3 rank, ML Odds rank, Live Win Odds rank, Tx1 and/or 2 ranks, and others depending on race type and track). Missing Stuff and Other Notes Another edition of a MasterTemplate coming soon will add in critical ROI% data to the Stats Block (e.g. ROI% of a $2 Win bet on each Factor Rank, or multiple bets on a group of ranks). Stats based on Exacta Mutuels will show the ROI% of boxes and part-wheels of combination ranks. Please note that some Factors have tied ranks and the Stats for these Factors are inflated. VDC is one such Factor, the Rx factors less so but sometimes you do have multiple Rx tied rank 1s, or Rank 2s, etc which serve to reduce the overall hit rates. I am working on evolving the Rx factors further to eliminate ties by various means (adding in tie-breaking significant factors like Total Energy or Live Tote Odds). Please note that if you use Default Configuration Settings (or even consistent customized settings), your Stats will all be comparable to each other and you will have Factor models at your disposal to model significant impacts of various factors and ranges of values at different tracks, surfaces, distancs and race types (which is the purpose of a Model in the first place). If anyone is doing interesting work with their Spreadsheets using ROI calculations or anything else and would like to contribute that work to the collective (or just wants to spruce up my rather primitive sheets) - please do let me know! I can use all the help I can get Having described the new Modeling abilities of RDSS 2.1 (and with a tutorial video to come shortly, below), and having worked with Models for the past month more than in the past several years - I must say this is all terribly tedious (though highly informative!). Exporting to Excel files and copying them to Template files has always been intended as a stop-gap until automatic and much more painless Modeling, Profiling and other Record Keeping can be brought into the in-house RDSS Records Module. Getting that set up has been even more work than the boring work of managing exported Excel Model files - but is where we are heading. For the record! Enjoy the new Modeling features! __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 11-30-2017 at 06:00 PM.