Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 01-02-2009, 12:43 PM

Hi Chris,

Problem is...he hasn't run a race fast enough in the last two years to win this. So, unless you're expecting a major improvement for some reason on a six year old gelding I don't see how he can reach the winner's circle.

And I don't see the pattern the same way you do. In his layoff prior to the last one he was off for almost three months and ran quite well on a turf sprint at Belmont. His subsequent race was even better.

To me that last race was a poor effort at a mile on the dirt after 70 days off.

We're obviously looking at different patterns.

I'll put my head on the chopping block and go with a different long shot. My hint: he's one of the two 10-1 morning line horses. As a four year old he ran a top three races ago, but didn't react negatively to it, running well the next race. His last race was not as good, but wasn't horrible. And that's a pattern I like (not a perfect pattern, but certainly good enough at those odds).

Please don't take any of this the wrong way. I'm thinking of it as an intellectual handicapping discussion and I hope you take it that way. I may sound brash, but I don't mean it.

Now let's hope one of us brings a bomb home!

:>)

01-02-2009, 12:43 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Hi Chris, Problem is...he hasn't run a race fast enough in the last two years to win this. So, unless you're expecting a major improvement for some reason on a six year old gelding I don't see how he can reach the winner's circle. And I don't see the pattern the same way you do. In his layoff prior to the last one he was off for almost three months and ran quite well on a turf sprint at Belmont. His subsequent race was even better. To me that last race was a poor effort at a mile on the dirt after 70 days off. We're obviously looking at different patterns. I'll put my head on the chopping block and go with a different long shot. My hint: he's one of the two 10-1 morning line horses. As a four year old he ran a top three races ago, but didn't react negatively to it, running well the next race. His last race was not as good, but wasn't horrible. And that's a pattern I like (not a perfect pattern, but certainly good enough at those odds). Please don't take any of this the wrong way. I'm thinking of it as an intellectual handicapping discussion and I hope you take it that way. I may sound brash, but I don't mean it. Now let's hope one of us brings a bomb home! :>)