Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill V. · 06-05-2019, 06:05 PM

Hi Mitch
It is me again

I don't think there are many here at pace and cap who exceed my respect and beliefs in Howard Sartin's words and guidelines

Here are my replies to your topics These are just my opinions based on my hundreds of conversations with Howard Sartin and Jim Bradshaw, Richie and Ted Craven and FTL

pg. 38 " TPR, is still Phase I and,while it's a better handicapping tool than those popular Pace/Speed Figures,

I will take these two together, I feel TPR/Pace is much better than other pace
speed figures. For two reasons, 1, The figures we see on the TPR screen in RDSS are adjusted using the adjustments from within RDSS and The Sartin "Par Gap" speed ratings, not the publicly offered trackmaster speed ratings .
2, They are consistently and accurately created by the program. Muxh
more acurate and not prone to mistakes in calculations than hand created from charts. Even Doc, and Jimmy automated Phase 1 starting in later versions of Energy by using the dream race "pars"

pg. 48
"Its predictive value is quite limited for those seeking professional-level win proficiency and profits."
The winners are still there but their resultant win price has dropped."

Doc and others have advised me NOT to seek this as a profession.
It limits growth in a fully rounded healthy lifestyle.

I feel there are many other reasons why prices have dropped,
that has more to do with betting options and data available to the public.
Free of charge and instantly available online.
I sit and wager with a group at Del Mar, I am the only member of this small
syndicate that uses the Sartin Methodology. We use a mixture of classic handicapping factors, jockey and trainer stats, form factors and my input from RDSS and or the classic programs.

None of us together would have the success we have using any single method, but as a group we are profitable

pg. #42 "With few exceptions,(again there are always a few), truly successful handicappers don't cluster toward a group mean; don't feel compelled to get along with everybody or to be know as Mr.(or Ms.) "nice guy." I was surprised to the max reading this one, of course open to your own interpretation.

I disagree in part, I feel working with others build strength when handicapping alone, It's great to have support when you believe your mentor is there to help you.

pg. #42 "The quest for absolutes and rules is the downfall of most aspiring handicappers." pg.43 "Another vital CONCEPT of this Methodology is this: In succ- essful Handicapping THERE ARE NO RULES."

I agree, but there are stat driven researchable supported Guidelines

pg. 44 " The MATCH-UP.This is the mechanical bottom line for all 7 phases of the Methodology." At the time of this writing there were 7 phases, and after this other phases and programs were developed."
" Even today within the RDSS program it still is the main ingredient to the recipe or bottom line. Note: this does not mean BLBL!!"

I agree All Phases are based on the Match UP

"pg.46 Static numerical ratings such as a Beyer SR are based on a horse's innate ability without regard for the contenders it's going against in a specific race. "The essence of the Match Up is NOT how well or fast a horse can run but how it will run against today's contention. The Match-Up is based on incremental times and positions or, if you want to join the crowd, call it pace."

I totally agree with the first part

"I myself think the best way to understand pace is to think of the 3 Fraction's as 3 different speed ratings or measurements."

I disagree,I feel the first fraction effects the other two fractions, The second fraction is measured at the second call but is build and influenced by the first two fractions. The 3rd fraction is mostly influenced by the first two fractions
This is an entirely in North America dirt racing, Not as much so in turf racing.

pg. 47 He talks about different factors, many would not exist without the 3 Fractions, by going to the 3 Fr's the win proficiency increased to 63 %. Higher than what can be achieved with just 2 increments of measurements or TPR / phase 1 These compounded factors greatly raised the bar of proficiency. Also Huey Mall said that segments of a race reduces the effects of a variant, or more segments the less the effect the variant will have on a race. I might add even more so with several compounded factors or ratings.

I agree It is better to use RDSS or a classic program that rates all three factors, If one is not proficient with Phase 1/TPR and just looks at the total pace rating they will struggle to hit 63%. However If one incorporates the early and late differential readouts of EPR and LPR, along with Med % and deceleration as taught by Doc in the advanced concepts of Phase1/TPR, Than a win proficiency of 63 percent is achievable.

Other factors, such as passing the correct races, looking for value and betting wisely with a greater knowledge of Brohamer and FTL guidelines will greatly improve win proficiency

What are your takeaway's?

06-05-2019, 06:05 PM	#9
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	thoughts Hi Mitch It is me again I don't think there are many here at pace and cap who exceed my respect and beliefs in Howard Sartin's words and guidelines Here are my replies to your topics These are just my opinions based on my hundreds of conversations with Howard Sartin and Jim Bradshaw, Richie and Ted Craven and FTL pg. 38 " TPR, is still Phase I and,while it's a better handicapping tool than those popular Pace/Speed Figures, I will take these two together, I feel TPR/Pace is much better than other pace speed figures. For two reasons, 1, The figures we see on the TPR screen in RDSS are adjusted using the adjustments from within RDSS and The Sartin "Par Gap" speed ratings, not the publicly offered trackmaster speed ratings . 2, They are consistently and accurately created by the program. Muxh more acurate and not prone to mistakes in calculations than hand created from charts. Even Doc, and Jimmy automated Phase 1 starting in later versions of Energy by using the dream race "pars" pg. 48 "Its predictive value is quite limited for those seeking professional-level win proficiency and profits." The winners are still there but their resultant win price has dropped." Doc and others have advised me NOT to seek this as a profession. It limits growth in a fully rounded healthy lifestyle. I feel there are many other reasons why prices have dropped, that has more to do with betting options and data available to the public. Free of charge and instantly available online. I sit and wager with a group at Del Mar, I am the only member of this small syndicate that uses the Sartin Methodology. We use a mixture of classic handicapping factors, jockey and trainer stats, form factors and my input from RDSS and or the classic programs. None of us together would have the success we have using any single method, but as a group we are profitable pg. #42 "With few exceptions,(again there are always a few), truly successful handicappers don't cluster toward a group mean; don't feel compelled to get along with everybody or to be know as Mr.(or Ms.) "nice guy." I was surprised to the max reading this one, of course open to your own interpretation. I disagree in part, I feel working with others build strength when handicapping alone, It's great to have support when you believe your mentor is there to help you. pg. #42 "The quest for absolutes and rules is the downfall of most aspiring handicappers." pg.43 "Another vital CONCEPT of this Methodology is this: In succ- essful Handicapping THERE ARE NO RULES." I agree, but there are stat driven researchable supported Guidelines pg. 44 " The MATCH-UP.This is the mechanical bottom line for all 7 phases of the Methodology." At the time of this writing there were 7 phases, and after this other phases and programs were developed." " Even today within the RDSS program it still is the main ingredient to the recipe or bottom line. Note: this does not mean BLBL!!" I agree All Phases are based on the Match UP "pg.46 Static numerical ratings such as a Beyer SR are based on a horse's innate ability without regard for the contenders it's going against in a specific race. "The essence of the Match Up is NOT how well or fast a horse can run but how it will run against today's contention. The Match-Up is based on incremental times and positions or, if you want to join the crowd, call it pace." I totally agree with the first part "I myself think the best way to understand pace is to think of the 3 Fraction's as 3 different speed ratings or measurements." I disagree,I feel the first fraction effects the other two fractions, The second fraction is measured at the second call but is build and influenced by the first two fractions. The 3rd fraction is mostly influenced by the first two fractions This is an entirely in North America dirt racing, Not as much so in turf racing. pg. 47 He talks about different factors, many would not exist without the 3 Fractions, by going to the 3 Fr's the win proficiency increased to 63 %. Higher than what can be achieved with just 2 increments of measurements or TPR / phase 1 These compounded factors greatly raised the bar of proficiency. Also Huey Mall said that segments of a race reduces the effects of a variant, or more segments the less the effect the variant will have on a race. I might add even more so with several compounded factors or ratings. I agree It is better to use RDSS or a classic program that rates all three factors, If one is not proficient with Phase 1/TPR and just looks at the total pace rating they will struggle to hit 63%. However If one incorporates the early and late differential readouts of EPR and LPR, along with Med % and deceleration as taught by Doc in the advanced concepts of Phase1/TPR, Than a win proficiency of 63 percent is achievable. Other factors, such as passing the correct races, looking for value and betting wisely with a greater knowledge of Brohamer and FTL guidelines will greatly improve win proficiency What are your takeaway's?