Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Gulfstream Race 1

Jeebs · 02-07-2018, 02:06 AM

I'll post PPs later, but using FTL's guidelines for illustrative purposes, here is my view:

Conditions:
7F Dirt, Clm12500 4up (Races for $10k or less not considered in allowances, FL breds preferred)

#1 - Both lines 1 and 2 are above today's class. I excused the last line as it was a "0" race way up in class. Line 2 is a "+" line from 61 days ago. Note the big gain in both position and beaten lengths in the stretch. For those in the BLT/C camp, Line 2 would also be your line, as it rates the best Percept and PoH Total Energy. On the Early/Late sticks, it is a sustained energy runner, and Line 2 conforms to how it usually runs.

#2 - Off the guidelines, this 5/2 ML favorite would not get a line. Why? It has gone completely off form in its last two starts, the last line at today's distance/surface/class. Note that it was claimed last out and now goes for a conditioner who excels first off the claim. If I'm using the BLT/C, it would stick the horse with Line 3 based on Percept, PoH and PoR Total Energy. Like #1, it is a sustained energy runner on the E/L sticks.

#3 - This is a softball line selection for both FTL's and the BLT/C guidelines. Line 1 is your line. "+" line last out (a win 63 days ago) over the surface/distance, albeit in the $6.25k N3L. Goes double the tag today vs. open claimers. The BLT/C players would note the Percept rank and respective Total Energies plus the fact that the horse has shown both Early and Late energy in its good races. Could be an interesting contender off a 15-1 ML. However, there are still other horses to rate/dismiss.

#4 - Off the FTL guidelines, there is only one possible line to possibly rate, and that would be Line 2. Line 1 - despite the fact that it is a 1M "one turn" race and within a furlong of today's distance - is still considered a standard "route" race. FTL's guideline is not to mix route races with sprints and vice versa. So, Line 1 is out. Line 2 is within a furlong of today's distance, but it's a 6F line - a sprint - so it could be rated. However, in today's class, it would rate as a "0" line. Simply a dull effort with no excuse. Even if there was a reason to bypass the line, the remaining lines are turf lines. Since we don't mix turf lines with dirt and vice versa and since we don't use "0" lines for rating purposes, #4 would not get a line. If you are a BLT/C player, and felt that the horse could contend, you could either extract the last line route (since it's within a furlong) or stick with Line 2, as both lines are equal PoH Total Energy. However, based on its Total Energy potential, I would not see this one figuring as a contender off the BLT/C rating.

#5 - Another softball. Line 2 is the line for both the FTL and BLT/C guidelines. Line 1 is a route (not usable) and Line 2 is a win ("+" line) at today's surface/distance. Horse graduated from the N3L in that race and was subsequently dropped 50% last out and claimed off a high test trainer. Off the BLT/C, Line 2 has the best Percept and PoH/PoR Total Energy outputs. Need the lead Early.

#6 - For the FTL guideline players, it is Line 1 and nothing further. A "+" line off today's surface/distance/class structure. The BLT/C player would find their line at the 5th race down, 160 days ago over the same surface/distance, skipping over sloppy track lines 3 and 4 lines down to get its best Total Energy output of the last 3 comparable.

#7 - This is where the respective guidelines meet a philosophic impasse. If you adhere to the FTL guidelines, there is NO LINE. Why? The horse is 20-1 ML. The horse is a low percentage play and is summarily dismissed. If you use BLT/C and determine that the horse is a contender, your line would be Line 2 based on PoH/PoR Total Energy output, albeit a slightly weaker Percept. It is a versatile Early/Late stick runner.

#8 - Softball for both the FTL and BLT/C players. Line 1 from 26 days ago IS the line. Despite the fact that it got blasted by a runaway winner, it finished 3rd and is technically a "+" line at today's surface/distance. Line 2 is a softer class than the Last Line (and is a win line at today's surface/distance structure), but is 96 days old, which is outside the parameters set by FTL's guidelines. Based on the BLT/C guidelines, it rates the best PoR/PoH Total Energy and Percept of comparable lines 1, 2 and 6 (3 is a sloppy track and 4 and 5 are turf).

02-07-2018, 02:06 AM	#1
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Gulfstream Race 1 - 2/7/18 I'll post PPs later, but using FTL's guidelines for illustrative purposes, here is my view: Conditions: 7F Dirt, Clm12500 4up (Races for $10k or less not considered in allowances, FL breds preferred) #1 - Both lines 1 and 2 are above today's class. I excused the last line as it was a "0" race way up in class. Line 2 is a "+" line from 61 days ago. Note the big gain in both position and beaten lengths in the stretch. For those in the BLT/C camp, Line 2 would also be your line, as it rates the best Percept and PoH Total Energy. On the Early/Late sticks, it is a sustained energy runner, and Line 2 conforms to how it usually runs. #2 - Off the guidelines, this 5/2 ML favorite would not get a line. Why? It has gone completely off form in its last two starts, the last line at today's distance/surface/class. Note that it was claimed last out and now goes for a conditioner who excels first off the claim. If I'm using the BLT/C, it would stick the horse with Line 3 based on Percept, PoH and PoR Total Energy. Like #1, it is a sustained energy runner on the E/L sticks. #3 - This is a softball line selection for both FTL's and the BLT/C guidelines. Line 1 is your line. "+" line last out (a win 63 days ago) over the surface/distance, albeit in the $6.25k N3L. Goes double the tag today vs. open claimers. The BLT/C players would note the Percept rank and respective Total Energies plus the fact that the horse has shown both Early and Late energy in its good races. Could be an interesting contender off a 15-1 ML. However, there are still other horses to rate/dismiss. #4 - Off the FTL guidelines, there is only one possible line to possibly rate, and that would be Line 2. Line 1 - despite the fact that it is a 1M "one turn" race and within a furlong of today's distance - is still considered a standard "route" race. FTL's guideline is not to mix route races with sprints and vice versa. So, Line 1 is out. Line 2 is within a furlong of today's distance, but it's a 6F line - a sprint - so it could be rated. However, in today's class, it would rate as a "0" line. Simply a dull effort with no excuse. Even if there was a reason to bypass the line, the remaining lines are turf lines. Since we don't mix turf lines with dirt and vice versa and since we don't use "0" lines for rating purposes, #4 would not get a line. If you are a BLT/C player, and felt that the horse could contend, you could either extract the last line route (since it's within a furlong) or stick with Line 2, as both lines are equal PoH Total Energy. However, based on its Total Energy potential, I would not see this one figuring as a contender off the BLT/C rating. #5 - Another softball. Line 2 is the line for both the FTL and BLT/C guidelines. Line 1 is a route (not usable) and Line 2 is a win ("+" line) at today's surface/distance. Horse graduated from the N3L in that race and was subsequently dropped 50% last out and claimed off a high test trainer. Off the BLT/C, Line 2 has the best Percept and PoH/PoR Total Energy outputs. Need the lead Early. #6 - For the FTL guideline players, it is Line 1 and nothing further. A "+" line off today's surface/distance/class structure. The BLT/C player would find their line at the 5th race down, 160 days ago over the same surface/distance, skipping over sloppy track lines 3 and 4 lines down to get its best Total Energy output of the last 3 comparable. #7 - This is where the respective guidelines meet a philosophic impasse. If you adhere to the FTL guidelines, there is NO LINE. Why? The horse is 20-1 ML. The horse is a low percentage play and is summarily dismissed. If you use BLT/C and determine that the horse is a contender, your line would be Line 2 based on PoH/PoR Total Energy output, albeit a slightly weaker Percept. It is a versatile Early/Late stick runner. #8 - Softball for both the FTL and BLT/C players. Line 1 from 26 days ago IS the line. Despite the fact that it got blasted by a runaway winner, it finished 3rd and is technically a "+" line at today's surface/distance. Line 2 is a softer class than the Last Line (and is a win line at today's surface/distance structure), but is 96 days old, which is outside the parameters set by FTL's guidelines. Based on the BLT/C guidelines, it rates the best PoR/PoH Total Energy and Percept of comparable lines 1, 2 and 6 (3 is a sloppy track and 4 and 5 are turf).