I am posting this race because I believe that it stresses the importance of paying close attention to the track variant (DTV) and knowing when you should move off a certain line in favor of a different one. Bill V. tuned me into this over time with his numerous examples and I encourage others to do the same.
Our "laboratory" is the dirt surface of Gulfstream Park - Sunday, March 19, 2017.
I established 6-3-4 are our top CR horses. Next step is finding a fulcrum, which I used #3's last line of 23.4/47.7.
Let's now mark the tandems. Here were the most recent. This will come in handy later, trust me!
Now let's handicap... I will start with the top CR, #6:
I chose "No Line" off Line 1, which is the 2nd tandem race, as it was beat pretty badly. Line 2 was technically a + race, but at a non-comparable distance and defeated by 16 lengths. Line 3 is back to a sprint, but a "0" line. Non-contender. I will move on to #3...
Line 1 is our fulcrum pace. It is a "Big Win" + line at today's distance and this horse is also the winner of the 2nd tandem. Open and shut paceline selection, right?
Wrong.