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Old 03-20-2017, 10:25 AM   #2
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Part 2

Let's review Line 1 more carefully:

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The big thing sticking out is the DTV: +30 or 30 points slow. Whenever the DTV is extreme (I don't know what Bill V's or anyone else's guidelines as far as an "acceptable" DTV cutoff if there is one, or if it is merely intuitive), my experience has been to view the line with skepticism. Remember, RDSS (and all aspects of the Methodology for that matter) are "user-driven" - the old adage "garbage in, garbage out!" comes to mind. If you "buy" a line (take a line at face value), that is the line you are measuring the horse against everyone else in the field. An out-of-whack adjustment on a single line can have a negative impact on the handicapping of a race. In other words, you risk either overrating/underrating a horse (giving it a line that might be out of whack with itself), or a group of horses (in this circumstance, a tandem in which the condition/speed of the track may have had an altering effect of how the race was run).

In this circumstance, I decided to move off the win line and chose Line 2. It was an Early Press effort and a technically + line, although the horse was 3rd beaten 7.5 lengths. However, the DTV of -2 is within reasonable parameters.
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