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Old 03-20-2017, 10:40 AM   #3
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Part 3

Now the rest of the field:

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I chose Line 1, which happens to be the 1st tandem listed. The horse was a bigly tandem loser, but it was a plus/zero race. However, Line 2, while a + line, is our +30 race. We are not going to rate this line. If you go further back for a + line, you have to look at September 8th on a sloppy track. At this point, you can either rate Line 1 - warts and all - or designate it as a non-contender. I don't like eliminating horses too early in the process, so I kept the line, with the reasoning being that if its TE stands a good chance of not passing the Energy screen test.

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This was a standard last line use. + line, somewhat fair DTV, 1st tandem best finisher and a strong race against a faster than the fulcrum pace of race.

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Once again, this is where the fluke DTV alters our paceline. Line 1 is a +, but due to the +30 DTV in that 2nd tandem, we are not considering that line. Since the + line opens the window, we will look at its 2nd line down. It is a win line against a faster pace than the fulcrum. Perhaps this one was impacted by the track last time out. We selected Line 2.

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Just like #4, this one was potentially impacted in its tandem by the +30 DTV. Line 2 on a "normal" track was a win line against a faster pace than the fulcrum. We use Line 2 on this horse.

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Line 1 was my choice. While technically not a + line, the horse was within 2 lengths in the front half of the field. Line 3 seems to validate, but I didn't see a real need to go beyond the last line.
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