For what it is worth, here are the TPR, BL/BL and Rx screens if we had accepted the +30 DTV line for the + line races. It is very, very telling:
The race winner (#4) gets bounced on the Energy test right out of the gate, while #1, who was an initial hide on Energy earlier in our example, gets bounced on TPR, setting the tiers up to favor #3 and #2. Ultimately, our selection of a line likely influenced by a freakish track would have burned us huge, as #3 failed to hit the board and #2 (2nd tier on both BL and Rx) could only collect the Show.
I would rather lose money using my intuition as to when a DTV doesn't seem to smell right instead of lose money using a line influenced by a DTV that doesn't smell right because I know my process is sound enough where I will compensate for the losses over time.
I hope you enjoyed this "lesson". Feel free to chime in!
