|
Hi Jeebs(Tim),
There are lots of "old posts floating around" that discombobulate both seasoned and newbie users. You found a doozy of a concept that predates 1988. That's not to mean the post you read is that old or someone isn't still using the procedure.
There are those that have some limited success and after which can not give it up. After all they were probably a total failure before so the least smell of success becomes intoxicating. Also they tend not to keep good records so they are not fully aware of true expectations, ROI etc. Stubborn resistance to change is a serious phycological problem that impedes success. As we all know "The Doc" was big on the psychology of winning as part of the foundation of success.
The "Old Yellow Manual" or Pace-Speed-Class manual went through 3 different editions; 1982.1987 and 1988. In the 1988 edition on page II of the pretext/ updated he states:
AVERAGEING
On page 16 in the Basic Phase III manual we state that averaging can be dangerous at best. While certain individuals can use averaging to their advantage, for most it is a disaster DO NOT AVERAGE. We have far better tools for selecting a PREDICATIVE PACE LINE.
Note: this was 1988 long before Preceptor etc. which even surpasses what he was referring to at that time.
Now I'm sure I'll be divulged with those that can do this. I'm sure when Sartin said "certain individuals," he was referring to the likes of Bradshaw and Brohamer which I don't see many of them around.
Sartin also referred to the blink of an eye as to how many horses cross the finish line during that blink. The overwhelming majority of races are very close with many photo finishes. This is his reason behind using the "Best of the last 3 at a comparable distance and surface." In order to win a horse will have to perform its best in order to win those photos and close finishes. I have long ago brought into that concept of racing that its best will be needed today as the dominant horse that can win by many lengths or is class superior are rare. The structure of racing and conditions are to equalize and prevent anyone horse from dominating and it does a real good job at it or favorites would win much more.
Sartin was constantly evolving to eliminate or take out the trash and refine the things that showed potential. One way he did this was through reports from members, testing, thinking outside the box and bringing together the best of ideas while always giving credit to those that birthed those ideas.
Bottom line is if you fail to take each horses best your ability to select the best among the field will be faulty and you'll fail much more than you should.
Mitch44
|