Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lightspeed2011 · 08-02-2012, 11:13 PM

Ted (or anyone),

I would appreciate some pros/cons on a couple of thoughts from other readings. Some of this may be basic to the more experienced or a subprocess of other considerations.

1 - I haven't seen much discussion in the way of weighing form patterns. An approach I read about (can't remember where) suggested finding the high and low speeds. Let’s say an 84 to 66, and has never hit the top twice in a row and after hitting top usually drops 6 to 10 points in next race. Gauging whether that speed is achievable again or not - say ran 82 last out - that's almost the top number and depending on age, races, etc may be a downgrade indicator. A variation of looking for “W” or “V” repeating patterns.

2 - In James Quinn’s “Class of the Field” (1987), he present an approach that sounded interesting to me and I have made some attempts to program it. It has to do with assigning a value range (2-7 for mdn clm to 12-20 for G1) for the time of the race based on the class and a value (1-5) on how competitive the race was. This part of the formula, (timefctr * compfctr) - beaten lengths (8 max) = performance index. Then the performance index is divided by this race class par (15 for mdn clm to 48 for G1) to get a class expectation to par for this race (1.0 = “par”).

To find his “Blueboys” (best of the best), he suggests the following:
average the performance index of:
1-the most recent representative race (no trouble, surf good, etc)
2-the best rating against the most advanced competition

Using his ratings, a “par” mdn claimer rates a 15, while just getting out of the gate in the Derby is a 12.

A lone early winner setting the pace would probably rate a 1 or 2 * speed factor
While 3 earlys fighting each other might rate a 4 or 5 * speed factor for at least part of the race even if it faded

Anyway, I’ve been playing around with the value of using one or a combination of:
1 - a rating from the highest class run
2 - a rating from any recent good race
3 - a rating from race comparable to today’s
to see if there is any correlation to performance and using the internal fractions to try and reflect the internal battling going on and adjust for closer/faders, etc.

Thanks.
Bob

An example of not reading the form completely: at Latonia (now Turfway), For a sprint, I skimmed over a horse because it had finished 10th or 12th or something like that. Once out of the gate - BANG - a 6 length lead by the top of the stretch. What did I miss? Looked at the form a LITTLE more closely - last race was the Derby - what a dummy!

08-02-2012, 11:13 PM	#1
lightspeed2011 AlwNW2X Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 25	Class of the field Ted (or anyone), I would appreciate some pros/cons on a couple of thoughts from other readings. Some of this may be basic to the more experienced or a subprocess of other considerations. 1 - I haven't seen much discussion in the way of weighing form patterns. An approach I read about (can't remember where) suggested finding the high and low speeds. Let’s say an 84 to 66, and has never hit the top twice in a row and after hitting top usually drops 6 to 10 points in next race. Gauging whether that speed is achievable again or not - say ran 82 last out - that's almost the top number and depending on age, races, etc may be a downgrade indicator. A variation of looking for “W” or “V” repeating patterns. 2 - In James Quinn’s “Class of the Field” (1987), he present an approach that sounded interesting to me and I have made some attempts to program it. It has to do with assigning a value range (2-7 for mdn clm to 12-20 for G1) for the time of the race based on the class and a value (1-5) on how competitive the race was. This part of the formula, (timefctr * compfctr) - beaten lengths (8 max) = performance index. Then the performance index is divided by this race class par (15 for mdn clm to 48 for G1) to get a class expectation to par for this race (1.0 = “par”). To find his “Blueboys” (best of the best), he suggests the following: average the performance index of: 1-the most recent representative race (no trouble, surf good, etc) 2-the best rating against the most advanced competition Using his ratings, a “par” mdn claimer rates a 15, while just getting out of the gate in the Derby is a 12. A lone early winner setting the pace would probably rate a 1 or 2 * speed factor While 3 earlys fighting each other might rate a 4 or 5 * speed factor for at least part of the race even if it faded Anyway, I’ve been playing around with the value of using one or a combination of: 1 - a rating from the highest class run 2 - a rating from any recent good race 3 - a rating from race comparable to today’s to see if there is any correlation to performance and using the internal fractions to try and reflect the internal battling going on and adjust for closer/faders, etc. Thanks. Bob An example of not reading the form completely: at Latonia (now Turfway), For a sprint, I skimmed over a horse because it had finished 10th or 12th or something like that. Once out of the gate - BANG - a 6 length lead by the top of the stretch. What did I miss? Looked at the form a LITTLE more closely - last race was the Derby - what a dummy!