[Mitch44]

barryt:


In reference to your second question the answer is that, no Sartin did not have a formula for assigning growth points to TPR or any other factor.

Your on the correct path in using Quirin adjustments. This is what I use and use either 1 or 1.5 for those adjustments. I use it now and than in certain situations.

Its tricky to use and not all that accurate because each horse's growth pattern is different, or in other words some don't progress until age 5 etc. I have found also that like humans horses grow in spurts or in other words all in a short time span such as only late in the year and not gradually throughout the year. Vino Rosso is a perfect example that won the BC Classic in that he really matured late in the year.

So these projections can be very iffy and they do have merit,but we don't know precisely when that will occur. Many never progress because they have no inherit class to begin with therefore I would caution against as its just a crapshoot. I do it now and than under certain circumstances but not for all horses or every situation. Someone once said "it works when it works and it don't when it doesn't.


The truth also is that form is very hard to predict and if we could do that with precision the game would be dead, so it is with projections. This also includes projection of a horse from a sprint to a route where Sartin does have a formula. Its more accurate to extract than to project anything.


Mitch44