Thanks Ray
The reason I picked the race was because of the conditions, and the
morning line favorite #6 was 3/1. I did not like the 6 because it was outside the 2 and 4 who were also early
Another thing I saw about the 6 was the 79 LPR I look at sub 80 LPR's with a weary eye,, and the 6 has not hit a 80 in its last 3 races.
Another plus was the 2 my fulcrum horse - and look who had the lead
at the second call = The 2 with a 94.5 EPR , 45 almost right at the fulcrum pace of 44.8
When I look for each races fulcrum when i start going down past each of the top EPR horses because they don't qualify, I start to get a feeling of get out of this race, this happen to me in last Saturdays Match up contest race .
The winner # 9 was in the top 5 TPR off the last line (#1) but
The fulcrum horse who qualified was the 3 who had the second worse EPR of the field. 85.3
In the TUP race we worked, there were 2 20/1 horses , I know they win but the percentages say hardly ever, out they go for win,
There were 3 horse that won there last race the 4 5 and 9 Can they repeat at such a low level ?
My friend looked the race over, and this was his own words .
"#3 - I can excuse the last line as it was the first race over this track at the current meet. Now, line 2 doesn't fit a + or (+). It did not run in the money, it did not have the lead at the first and/or second call and it did not make up ground between the first and second call to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. So, if you can find a way to get to the 3rd race back, I would use that line although I don't know how that would work out.
.
So, try using line 3 for the #3 horse and see how he fits.
I would not have hit this race, however, I wouldn't have even got involved in this race. Not my kind of race.
Sorry I couldn't be of more help in trying to get the winner."
Here is the Phase 1 screen using Line 3 , I did not go past the second line
but I did notice it ran a much more unbalance Early to late 9.3 in line 2
I also see it was 14/1 when its usually in single digits odds.
and it was a 93 race rating compared to today's 85
The 3 now is low on TPR but does have the best LPR and is the counter energy horse
Its Presser running style shows it might be close enough to the pace to use the late pace rating to its advantage
That is what happened It was in position 8 but had nough to get up and beat out my 9