Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Problem race - SAR 3rd

Bill Lyster · 08-22-2017, 11:42 AM

Name: ScreenHunter_805 Aug. 22 07.45.jpg
Views: 425
Size: 340.9 KB

I did not look at this race until your post, but:

Excluding the last race and looking at lines 2-4 and 10 when this horse has some form, he runs in the mid 80s EPR. Had some early speed in the turf race in that it ran much closer to the lead, but even this effort was better than previous turf races, position wise.

In the bottom screen I only changed the line selection (from the auto select) on the 3 to include its ONE TURN 8 furlong race. In my handicapping I do not adjust the internal fractions from one turn miles. Look at the advantage the 3 has on every 6 furlong time in the rest of the field (low 111s vs almost everyone laying off a 112 or slower. Also, only the 4 wants to be close to the lead, but in much slower time.

The Hat said to look at all the lines, from the bottom up, then come to a decision. This is just reinforcement of that principle.

One other point. This is a NW3L race so in many cases you can go back to when the horse won its NW2L race (if you can find it - probably not in the 2/54 horse) This horse deserved the class drop.

08-22-2017, 11:42 AM	#8
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	A way to look at it I did not look at this race until your post, but: Excluding the last race and looking at lines 2-4 and 10 when this horse has some form, he runs in the mid 80s EPR. Had some early speed in the turf race in that it ran much closer to the lead, but even this effort was better than previous turf races, position wise. In the bottom screen I only changed the line selection (from the auto select) on the 3 to include its ONE TURN 8 furlong race. In my handicapping I do not adjust the internal fractions from one turn miles. Look at the advantage the 3 has on every 6 furlong time in the rest of the field (low 111s vs almost everyone laying off a 112 or slower. Also, only the 4 wants to be close to the lead, but in much slower time. The Hat said to look at all the lines, from the bottom up, then come to a decision. This is just reinforcement of that principle. One other point. This is a NW3L race so in many cases you can go back to when the horse won its NW2L race (if you can find it - probably not in the 2/54 horse) This horse deserved the class drop.