Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 06-09-2018, 12:54 PM

If any of you read the FTL compilation one of the most interesting stats he presented related to favorites.

Roughly stated and backed by years of research FTL told us that 52% of odds on favorites won while only 18% of non odds-on favorites won.

I reviewed the Jan. thru April charts at ParX with these results:

Sprints:

74/266 sprints won by the favorite; 27.8%
Odds-on favorites 29/56, 51.8%
Other than odds-on 21.4%

Routes:
44/154 routes won by the favorite: 28.6%
Odds-on favorites 9/26, 34.6%
Other than odds-on, 35/128, 27.3%

In this period 63% of all races were sprints. It pays to be aware of odds-on vs. other than odds-on favorites,especially in sprints.

I considered odds on being anything below 6/5, since a horse at 1.1/1 would show on the tote as even money.

hope it helps.

06-09-2018, 12:54 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Parx followup If any of you read the FTL compilation one of the most interesting stats he presented related to favorites. Roughly stated and backed by years of research FTL told us that 52% of odds on favorites won while only 18% of non odds-on favorites won. I reviewed the Jan. thru April charts at ParX with these results: Sprints: 74/266 sprints won by the favorite; 27.8% Odds-on favorites 29/56, 51.8% Other than odds-on 21.4% Routes: 44/154 routes won by the favorite: 28.6% Odds-on favorites 9/26, 34.6% Other than odds-on, 35/128, 27.3% In this period 63% of all races were sprints. It pays to be aware of odds-on vs. other than odds-on favorites,especially in sprints. I considered odds on being anything below 6/5, since a horse at 1.1/1 would show on the tote as even money. hope it helps.