Quote:
Originally Posted by NeedForSpeed
OP 4-13-2013 Race 4
CONTENDERS
1- Banjammer > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
2- Bid Til Included > This horses last race was a “0” and the next pace line is 175 days away. I don’t want to go too far back and this horse hasn’t shown a strong win tendency in recent races. OUT
3- A Student > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. WIN CONTENDER
4- Tiz Tee Time > 3 “+” lines out if its last 4 races although all are sprints. WIN CONTENDER
5- Nehro > I may need help with this one. 301 days off? I just can’t justify this. Also I noticed (it may or may not mean anything) as much class as it has its only wins are maiden and NW1. OUT
6- Kates main man > SCRATCH
7- Omniscient > "+" last pace line. Distance, surface and conditions match today's event. I wanted to make him ITM contender because he hasn’t won in his last 10 but he is 5 out of 31 lifetime. My decision was WIN CONTENDER
8- Runaway Pepper > SCRATCH
9- Truetap > This horse’s pattern is “0”, “0”, “+”, “0”, “+”. He was claimed 3 back and has been dismal in his last 2 NW2X races. Today’s race is NW2X. Do I toss the horse? There’s just enough in the overall PP’s to keep him in. WIN CONTENDER
10- Livonzin > There are no routes in his 4 races. Started 2 for 2 then came up short as a favorite and was put on the shelf. Maybe the first race back was a tune up for this new attempt at distance? Because of its record I am keeping it in. WIN CONTENDER
PACE LINES
1- Banjammer > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
3- A Student > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
4- Tiz Tee Time > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
7- Omniscient > The last pace line is a good pace line. LINE 1
9- Truetap > The only usable pace line within the last 90 days is the 3rd pace line. But the 2nd pace line has no excuses. Should I now toss this horse due to that? LINE 3
10- Livonzin > This horse made a big move between 1st and 2nd calls to get to 2.7 lengths behind. Is this a usable pace line? Or is this horse out without a good pace line within 90 days? LINE 1
RACE ANALYSIS
Velocity PoH shows the 10 to get the early lead and be the pace setter. But the 10 is weak late and will fall off. There are no other lead or presser types so I can’t see any projected “L’s” winning the race. I eliminate the 9 from win status. I now have 2 “SP’s” and 2 “S’s”. I give more weight to the “SP’s” because the pace is weak and unless the “S’s” show a clear advantage I want to stick with the “SP’s”. First thing I see is the #1 horse. He has the best ASR at 82 and is an “SP”. Win selection. That leaves 3 horses and they are all very close in all categories. Their ASR’s are basically the same so with the #4 as the only “SP” of the 3 horses #4 is my other win selection.
My question coming out of this concerns the 9 and 10 horses. At pace line selection if pace line 2 has no excuses do I toss the horse without going to a valid pace line 3? For horse 10 can I use that “big move” pace line?
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Let's look at the #9. The question is, "should we go back to line 3?" My answer is "NO" and here is the reason.
You will find that in many of my answers, "conditions" usually play a part. This case is not different, so let's look at the conditions for the last three races. But before we do that, what is today's condition? it is an "OC" (optional claiming race) with a NW2X (non winners of 2 race other than) condition. So is line 2. Line 3, however, is different. Line 3 was a "CL" (claiming race) with a NW3L (non winners of 3 races lifetime) condition. There is a BIG difference between the conditions of lines 1 & 2 when compared to the conditions of line 3, with the conditions of lines 1 & 2 being MUCH tougher. Since this horse ran well in line 3 and ran so bad in lines 1 & 2, we can logically conclude it will NOT run well in today's race. It is NOT a contender in today's race.
Now, having said all that, there is one more thing. This is NOT a Sartin Methodology thing, but rather, something of my own. I have no idea how many times I have written this, but since you are new to the site I don't mind writing it again. I have well over 5,000,000 horses in a database. This database is made up of well over 600,000 races. I can tell you that horses that have a morning line (ML) of 20/1 or higher win about 5% of the races, so I'm content with eliminating these horses as non-contenders. I rather work with the 95% that are among the most logical contenders. One thing everyone must learn, is that no matter how you approach handicapping horse races...YOU CAN'T WIN THEM ALL!" You have to learn to accept the losses and move on, continuing to use a consistent approach.
That was the long way around saying that the #9 horse also has a ML of 30/1 and for that reason would be dismissed out of hand. Ok, on to the #10 horse.
The #10 horse is straight forward. The idea behind picking contenders and pacelines is finding "COMPARABLE" lines from which to make a determination. Here is a screen shot I took from either the Paceline manual or a Follow Up, right now I'm not sure which, but it is something "DOC" wrote.
QUESTION: Does the #10 horse have a race on the dirt in a route race?
ANSWER: NO.
This horse is NOT a contender.