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Old 03-12-2020, 02:48 PM   #12
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Hi barryt:

Your right that when it works the payoffs are good.

Sartin has no recommendation for 2nd time starters and never got into that kind of stuff.

In fact Sartin never believed in Pars which Qurin stuff was based on and most all Speed Ratings are based on, nor the maturity factor as well, however it is a valid concept. The problem is all horses don't mature at the same rate. Some are precocious while others may mature late or not till their 5 or even 6 yr.'s of age, even when trained by the best.This is why it doesn't work on a consistent basis. If used as a nothing burger one will lose their butt.

Sartin is also correct about Pars and their flaws etc. Sartin's concept of Pars were the horses within the race or Matchup determine Pars. He is correct that Pars people purchase are old and outdated by the time people get them (no immediacy here).That also begs the question if its the same horse. He also is correct that horses don't run to pars but run by the matchup of the race. Sartin was correct also that one of the biggest problems with Pars is that their taken from the POR (pace of the race) rather than by the winners of the race.(POH)

The match up is within the RDSS program based on his belief of Pars. Its much more recent, more accurate than matchers can do by eyeball scans etc. and most matchers don't take it into the 3rd FR,so their essentially speed handicappers.

Taking it into the 3rd FR is best done by the computer program. The 2 for 1 formula just isn't accurate. I.e. for every unit of pace used early will cost the horse 2 unit in the 3rd. FR., the big reason for this is that horses don't all decelerate at the same rate. Therefore its a hap hazard approach at best.

I use odds also for FTS.

I would not use Cramer's adjustments as they seem way out of line and especially with TPR. TPR is based on 1 point per length. Speed Rating are much more and more like 1.5 per length for sprints and 1 per lg. for routes. So for 15 sprint 22.5 & 20 sprint 30 lg.'s A route 15 is 15 lg.s and a 20 SR is 20 lg.'s For a horse to make up those kind beaten lengths in TPR are just unreasonable from race to race. Seldom will you see a horse make up more than 10 lengths, in fact the majority of TPR winners come from the top 3 and horses with a deficit of 10 will seldom be in the top 3. And if ranked 4th or worse you better be getting some odds to make the risk rewarding. Keep records of TPR and you'll see this.

Mitch44
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