Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 03-12-2020, 08:29 PM

I agree Bill but have seen where horses between 5 & 10 of the top figure wins. These are mostly from the matchup and improving horses. Specifically when at least 3 E horses with very high % Med that get into a speed duel. With two E horses many times they don't get into a speed duel because one may not be in form.

These horses tend to show high deceleration and it allows even pace horses and S types to catch the dying speed. Beaten lengths say they should not win but they do. And if the top TPR etc. are out of form their closer and more competitive than appears.

I see more of these types of races at the minor tracks. Horses with sharp deceleration get regulated to the minors because at major tracks they tend to hold their speed longer.

My point to barryt was to keep records and he'll see the top 3 generally win most of the races , it really drops after the top 5 as far as winning ability. Rather than ranks RDSS users or pace cappers should look more at gaps than rankings.

A point of SR and a length in TPR are not the same also. Over 10 lg. especially 15 & 20 are way out of line. I agree that beyond the top 2 LPR seldom win, those are excellent guidelines from PMTR. IMO those guidelines don't allow for even pace horses who generally never meet that criteria and Total Energy horses, although most times they are similar.

How you doing Bill? Well I hope and best of health.

Mitch44

03-12-2020, 08:29 PM	#14
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I agree Bill but have seen where horses between 5 & 10 of the top figure wins. These are mostly from the matchup and improving horses. Specifically when at least 3 E horses with very high % Med that get into a speed duel. With two E horses many times they don't get into a speed duel because one may not be in form. These horses tend to show high deceleration and it allows even pace horses and S types to catch the dying speed. Beaten lengths say they should not win but they do. And if the top TPR etc. are out of form their closer and more competitive than appears. I see more of these types of races at the minor tracks. Horses with sharp deceleration get regulated to the minors because at major tracks they tend to hold their speed longer. My point to barryt was to keep records and he'll see the top 3 generally win most of the races , it really drops after the top 5 as far as winning ability. Rather than ranks RDSS users or pace cappers should look more at gaps than rankings. A point of SR and a length in TPR are not the same also. Over 10 lg. especially 15 & 20 are way out of line. I agree that beyond the top 2 LPR seldom win, those are excellent guidelines from PMTR. IMO those guidelines don't allow for even pace horses who generally never meet that criteria and Total Energy horses, although most times they are similar. How you doing Bill? Well I hope and best of health. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 03-12-2020 at 08:32 PM.