|
I believe you got it barryt, Glad you understand the difference with the SR verses TPR in RDSS which was what I thought you were doing.
In using Bris pace ratings for TPR, the Speed Rating and beaten lengths also differ. Regardless of distance Bris uses 2 points for each beaten length. Their SR are 1.5 for sprints and 1 for routes regardless of distance. Therefore there is less projecting and its more accurate with Bris pace than with Sartin TPR within RDSS.
Sartin and RDSS uses different adjustments for BL according to the distance being measures Or in other words the adjustment used for 4 F and 2F in TPR for a 6 F race is different than a 7F race where the increments are 4F and 3 F. Point is very much less accurate to project growth in RDSS than within BRIS.
As I said I do it and employ it. I always do it with Bris ratings. What I think you should do is forget about projecting SR to TPR as it compounds the problem. Just project the growth in Speed Ratings, than use that as a guide to whether or not their competitive by SR to the rest of the field. If so there is no need to convert to a Bris TPR. IMO converting to a TPR just compounds the possible error. I never convert to TPR just to a SR.
I looked at your race of todays 7th @ OP and IMO no. Here's why: #1 your using a 5.5 line to project to 6F. How is that done? Also in that line he was decelerating and once that starts no ones knows how accurate a 6F race will be. I.e, it may increase rapidly that last 1/2 F or may be able to hold it. Its a crapshoot. Once deceleration starts it generally doesn't improve. The line your using for the 4 is taken from a 6.5 line. This stuff works best when using similar lines and surfaces.
With that said, this is a tough race as 3 other horses have ran SR's in the 90's and a couple others in high 80's when breaking their maiden recently which means they could be anything and jump and win if they were not all out in those Md. wins. Something only the connections are aware of.
Getting very good odds on the #1 is critical considering the field and also the 1 is coming off a very long layoff of 181 days. That could be from injury or planned to allow it to mature.
Here my other analysis. you don't have to project the #1 horse. He has proven the distance and didn't decelerate that much in the race of 10 Aug. at 6.5F. The last part he decelerated rapidly. But look at the internal times of that race. At the stretch call he was 5 lg. off so I would day he ran this in 110 or 110.2 Same as that of the 4 at the same calendar period but also in a race with much faster internal, FR.'s than what the 4 did. So I would say he's a better horse.
The trainer for the 1 horse is very capable off a layoff, a plus. His workouts say ready. Prior to layoff he was given longer and slower workouts in prep for his route try. The only ? today is what odds you'll get. If you get the M/L odds of 8-1 I would bet it otherwise pass.
No need to project the 1 horse. When projecting consider like dis.'s and surfaces. Project using SR as a comparative and forget about converting to TPR.
Mitch44
|